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A Novel Computational Model of the Wheat Global Market with an Application to the 2010 Russian Federation Case
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation ( IF 3.506 ) Pub Date : 2019-01-01 , DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4063
Gianfranco Giulioni , Edmondo Di Giuseppe , Piero Toscano , Francesco Miglietta , Massimiliano Pasqui

In this paper, we build a computational model for the analysis of international wheat spot price formation, its dynamics and the dynamics of quantities traded internationally. The model has been calibrated using FAOSTAT data to evaluate its in-sample predictive power. The model is able to generate wheat prices in twelve international markets and traded wheat quantities in twenty-four world regions. The time span considered is from 1992 to 2013. In our study, particular attention was paid to the impact of the Russian Federation's 2010 grain export ban on wheat price and quantities traded internationally. Among other results, we found that the average weighted world wheat price in 2013 would have been 3.55% lower than the observed one if the Russian Federation had not imposed the export ban in 2010.

中文翻译:

小麦全球市场的新型计算模型及其在2010年俄罗斯联邦案例中的应用

在本文中,我们建立了一个计算模型,用于分析国际小麦现货价格的形成,其动态以及国际交易量的动态。该模型已使用FAOSTAT数据进行了校准,以评估其样本内预测能力。该模型能够在十二个国际市场上产生小麦价格,并在二十四个世界区域内交易小麦数量。考虑的时间跨度为1992年至2013年。在我们的研究中,我们特别关注了俄罗斯联邦2010年谷物出口禁令对小麦价格和国际贸易量的影响。在其他结果中,我们发现,如果俄罗斯联邦未在2010年实施出口禁令,则2013年世界加权平均小麦价格将比观察到的价格低3.55%。
更新日期:2019-01-01
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