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Computational Models That Matter During a Global Pandemic Outbreak: A Call to Action
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation ( IF 3.506 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4298
Flaminio Squazzoni , J. Gareth Polhill , Bruce Edmonds , Petra Ahrweiler , Patrycja Antosz , Geeske Scholz , Émile Chappin , Melania Borit , Harko Verhagen , Francesca Giardini , Nigel Gilbert

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a dramatic loss of lives worldwide, challenging the sustainability of our health care systems, threatening economic meltdown, and putting pressure on the mental health of individuals (due to social distancing and lock-down measures). The pandemic is also posing severe challenges to the scientific community, with scholars under pressure to respond to policymakers’ demands for advice despite the absence of adequate, trusted data. Understanding the pandemic requires fine-grained data representing specific local conditions and the social reactions of individuals. While experts have built simulation models to estimate disease trajectories that may be enough to guide decision-makers to formulate policy measures to limit the epidemic, they do not cover the full behavioural and social complexity of societies under pandemic crisis. Modelling that has such a large potential impact upon people’s lives is a great responsibility. This paper calls on the scientific community to improve the transparency, access, and rigour of their models. It also calls on stakeholders to improve the rapidity with which data from trusted sources are released to the community (in a fully responsible manner). Responding to the pandemic is a stress test of our collaborative capacity and the social/economic value of research.

中文翻译:

全球大流行爆发期间重要的计算模型:行动呼吁

COVID-19大流行正在全球范围内造成严重的生命损失,挑战了我们的医疗体系的可持续性,威胁了经济崩溃,并对个人的心理健康造成了压力(由于社会疏远和封锁措施)。这种流行病还给科学界带来了严峻的挑战,尽管缺乏足够的,可信赖的数据,但学者们在应对决策者的咨询意见的压力下仍然面临压力。了解大流行需要细粒度的数据,这些数据代表特定的当地条件和个人的社会反应。尽管专家已经建立了模拟模型来估计疾病的轨迹,这可能足以指导决策者制定限制流行的政策措施,它们并未涵盖大流行危机下社会的行为和社会复杂性。对人们的生活产生巨大潜在影响的建模是一项重大责任。本文呼吁科学界提高其模型的透明度,可访问性和严格性。它还呼吁利益相关者提高从可信来源向社区发布数据的速度(以完全负责的方式)。应对大流行是对我们合作能力和研究的社会/经济价值的压力测试。它还呼吁利益相关者提高从可信来源向社区发布数据的速度(以完全负责的方式)。应对大流行是对我们合作能力和研究的社会/经济价值的压力测试。它还呼吁利益相关者提高从可信来源向社区发布数据的速度(以完全负责的方式)。应对大流行是对我们的协作能力和研究的社会/经济价值的压力测试。
更新日期:2020-01-01
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