How do states pursue nuclear weapons? Why do they select particular strategies to develop them, and how do these choices affect the international community's ability to prevent nuclear proliferation? The bulk of the proliferation literature focuses on why states want nuclear weapons. The question of how they pursue them, however, has largely been ignored. This question is important because how states try to acquire nuclear weapons—their strategies of nuclear proliferation—affects their likelihood of success and thus the character of the nuclear landscape. Four strategies of proliferation are available to states: hedging, sprinting, hiding, and sheltered pursuit. Nuclear acquisition theory explains why a proliferator might select one strategy over the others at a given time. Empirical codings from the universe of nuclear pursuers, combined with a detailed plausibility probe of India's long march to acquiring nuclear weapons—including novel details—establish the analytical power of the theory. Different strategies of proliferation offer different opportunities and vulnerabilities for nuclear proliferation and nonproliferation, with significant implications for international security.

中文翻译：

---

核扩散战略：各国如何追求原子弹

国家如何追求核武器？他们为什么选择特定的战略来制定这些战略，这些选择如何影响国际社会防止核扩散的能力？大部分扩散文献都集中在为什么国家想要核武器上。然而，他们如何追求他们的问题在很大程度上被忽视了。这个问题很重要，因为各国试图获得核武器的方式——它们的核扩散战略——会影响它们成功的可能性，从而影响核格局的特征。国家可以使用四种扩散策略：对冲、冲刺、躲藏和躲避追击。核获取理论解释了为什么扩散者可能会在给定时间选择一种策略而不是其他策略。来自核追求者世界的经验编码，结合对印度获得核武器的长征的详细合理性调查——包括新的细节——建立了该理论的分析能力。不同的扩散战略为核扩散和不扩散提供了不同的机会和脆弱性，对国际安全产生了重大影响。