What are the consequences of drone proliferation for international security? Despite extensive discussions in the policy world concerning drone strikes for counterterrorism purposes, myths about the capabilities and implications of current-generation drones often outstrip reality. Understanding the impact of drones requires separating fact from fiction by examining their effects in six different contexts—counterterrorism, interstate conflict, crisis onset and deterrence, coercive diplomacy, domestic control and repression, and use by nonstate actors for the purposes of terrorism. Although current-generation drones introduce some unique capabilities into conflicts, they are unlikely to produce the dire consequences that some analysts fear. In particular, drone proliferation carries potentially significant consequences for counterterrorism operations and domestic control in authoritarian regimes. Drones could also enhance monitoring in disputed territories, potentially leading to greater stability. Given their technical limitations, however, current-generation drones are unlikely to have a large impact on interstate warfare. Assessing the consequences of drone proliferation has important implications for a range of policy issues, including the management of regional disputes, the regulation of drone exports, and defense against potential terrorist attacks on the homeland.

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在关于无人机扩散的辩论中区分事实与虚构

无人机扩散对国际安全有什么后果？尽管政策界对用于反恐目的的无人机袭击进行了广泛讨论，但关于当代无人机的能力和影响的神话往往超出现实。了解无人机的影响需要通过检查它们在六种不同背景下的影响来区分事实与虚构——反恐、国家间冲突、危机爆发和威慑、强制外交、国内控制和镇压，以及非国家行为者为恐怖主义目的而使用无人机。尽管当前这一代无人机在冲突中引入了一些独特的能力，但它们不太可能产生一些分析人士担心的可怕后果。特别是，无人机扩散可能对专制政权的反恐行动和国内控制产生重大影响。无人机还可以加强对有争议领土的监控，从而可能带来更大的稳定性。然而，鉴于其技术限制，当前一代无人机不太可能对州际战争产生重大影响。评估无人机扩散的后果对一系列政策问题具有重要意义，包括区域争端的管理、无人机出口的监管以及防御对本土的潜在恐怖袭击。当代无人机不太可能对州际战争产生重大影响。评估无人机扩散的后果对一系列政策问题具有重要意义，包括区域争端的管理、无人机出口的监管以及防御对本土的潜在恐怖袭击。当代无人机不太可能对州际战争产生重大影响。评估无人机扩散的后果对一系列政策问题具有重要意义，包括区域争端的管理、无人机出口的监管以及防御对本土的潜在恐怖袭击。