Many analysts argue that U.S. drone strikes generate blowback: by killing innocent civilians, such strikes radicalize Muslim populations at the local, national, and even transnational levels. This claim, however, is based primarily on anecdotal evidence, unreliable media reports, and advocacy-driven research by human rights groups. Interview and survey data from Pakistan, where, since 2004, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency has launched more than 430 drone strikes, show little or no evidence that drone strikes have a significant impact on militant Islamist recruitment either locally or nationally. Rather, the data reveal the importance of factors such as political and economic grievances, the Pakistani state's selective counterterrorism policies, its indiscriminate repression of the local population, and forced recruitment of youth by militant groups. Similarly, trial testimony and accounts of terrorists convicted in the United States, as well as the social science scholarship on Muslim radicalization in the United States and Europe, provide scant evidence that drone strikes are the main cause of militant Islamism. Instead, factors that matter include a transnational Islamic identity's appeal to young immigrants with conflicted identities, state immigration and integration policies that marginalize Muslim communities, the influence of peers and social networks, and online exposure to violent jihadist ideologies within the overall context of U.S. military interventions in Muslim countries.

中文翻译：

---

美国无人机袭击会引起反冲吗？来自巴基斯坦及其他地区的证据

许多分析人士认为，美国的无人机袭击会产生反击：通过杀害无辜平民，这种袭击在地方、国家甚至跨国层面激化了穆斯林人口。然而，这种说法主要基于轶事证据、不可靠的媒体报道和人权组织的倡导驱动研究。来自巴基斯坦的采访和调查数据，自 2004 年以来，美国中央情报局已经发动了 430 多次无人机袭击，几乎没有证据表明无人机袭击对当地或全国的激进伊斯兰主义者招募有重大影响。相反，数据揭示了政治和经济不满、巴基斯坦国家选择性的反恐政策、对当地居民的不分青红皂白的镇压等因素的重要性，以及激进组织强迫招募青年。同样，在美国被定罪的恐怖分子的审判证词和叙述，以及美国和欧洲关于穆斯林激进化的社会科学奖学金，都提供了很少的证据表明无人机袭击是激进伊斯兰主义的主要原因。相反，重要的因素包括跨国伊斯兰身份对身份冲突的年轻移民的吸引力、使穆斯林社区边缘化的国家移民和融合政策、同龄人和社交网络的影响以及在美国军队的整体背景下在线接触暴力圣战意识形态对穆斯林国家的干预。以及关于美国和欧洲穆斯林激进化的社会科学奖学金，提供很少的证据表明无人机袭击是激进伊斯兰主义的主要原因。相反，重要的因素包括跨国伊斯兰身份对身份冲突的年轻移民的吸引力、使穆斯林社区边缘化的国家移民和融合政策、同龄人和社交网络的影响以及在美国军队的整体背景下在线接触暴力圣战意识形态对穆斯林国家的干预。以及关于美国和欧洲穆斯林激进化的社会科学奖学金，提供很少的证据表明无人机袭击是激进伊斯兰主义的主要原因。相反，重要的因素包括跨国伊斯兰身份对身份冲突的年轻移民的吸引力、使穆斯林社区边缘化的国家移民和融合政策、同龄人和社交网络的影响以及在美国军队的整体背景下在线接触暴力圣战意识形态对穆斯林国家的干预。