Background: Subjective survival probabilities are affected by individual-specific judgment and vary by factors known to differentiate actual mortality. Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate whether sociodemographic characteristics, physical and mental health, and lifestyle are incorporated into subjective survival probabilities of Europeans aged 50 or higher. Methods: We use data from Wave 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and period life tables from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). For the statistical analysis we employ multinomial logistic regression models. Results: Our results show that common factors drive the self-reported subjective survival probabilities. Certain factors affecting actual mortality are considered when forming subjective survival probabilities: income, education, poor physical and mental health, activities of daily living (ADLs), smoking, physical activity, diet, quality of life, and number of children. Other factors are not considered in a manner consistent with actual mortality patterns: age, gender, marital status, and body weight. The findings regarding cognitive function are inconclusive; whereas some aspects seem to be integrated in subjective survival probabilities (e.g., memory or self-writing skills), others are not (e.g., numeracy or orientation in time). Contribution: The contribution of this study is the grouping of sociodemographic, health, and lifestyle characteristics according to the subjective survival probabilities’ direction and consistency with general population mortality and actual mortality patterns. Hence, we assess which traits are incorporated in the formation of subjective survival probabilities among Europeans aged 50 or higher.

中文翻译：

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欧洲人未来生存估计中纳入的因素

背景：主观生存概率受个体特异性判断的影响，并因已知的区别实际死亡率的因素而异。目的：本研究的目的是评估是否将社会人口统计学特征，身心健康和生活方式纳入了50岁或以上的欧洲人的主观生存概率。方法：我们使用来自欧洲健康，衰老和退休调查（SHARE）的第6浪中的数据以及来自人类死亡率数据库（HMD）的寿命表。对于统计分析，我们采用多项逻辑回归模型。结果：我们的结果表明，共同因素驱动着自我报告的主观生存概率。形成主观生存概率时会考虑某些影响实际死亡率的因素：收入，教育程度，身心健康状况不佳，日常生活（ADL），吸烟，体育锻炼，饮食，生活质量和儿童人数。未考虑与实际死亡率模式相符的其他因素：年龄，性别，婚姻状况和体重。关于认知功能的发现尚无定论。有些方面似乎与主观生存概率（例如记忆或自我写作技能）整合在一起，而其他方面则没有（例如计算或时间取向）。贡献：这项研究的贡献是根据主观生存概率的方向以及与总体人口死亡率和实际死亡率模式的一致性，对社会人口统计学，健康状况和生活方式特征进行分组。因此，