BACKGROUND In the wake of aging societies, pro-natalist policies have been used around the world to promote childbearing in developed countries. Very little research investigates the causal effect of the Australian government's baby bonus policy as a once-off, non-means tested incentive scheme on the observed individual fertility. OBJECTIVE We investigate the role of immigration in raising fertility beyond what could be achieved by the Australian-born population. The impact of this policy is heavily reliant on the effectiveness of monetary incentives in boosting fertility, yet it is not clear who drives this effect. METHODS We utilize triple difference-in-difference (DDD) strategy to evaluate the relationship between childbearing and introduction of the baby bonus in a quasi-experimental setting. We evaluate the quasi-experimental setting by using propensity score matching. RESULTS Our findings highlight the role of immigrant women in driving the success of the policy. Moreover, the impact is found to be highest among immigrant women with low levels of human capital, which diminishes with age. CONCLUSION The results imply that the role of immigrants, especially that of a young workforce, in aging societies may be greater than has been previously attributed. CONTRIBUTION This paper not only provides scope for the analysis of pro-natal policies within the context of Australia but investigates its impact on immigrant women vis-a-vis nativeborn women. We find the immigrant contribution to be significant in driving the success of pro-natal monetary incentives. Australia is an exemplar for this analysis due to early adoption of pro-natalist incentives for childbearing amidst a population with high immigrant concentration.

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谁对提高生育能力的奖励做出反应？来自澳大利亚的产前政策的证据

背景技术随着社会的老龄化，在世界范围内已经采用了反对种族隔离的政策来促进发达国家的生育。很少有研究调查澳大利亚政府的婴儿奖金政策作为一项一次性的，未经经济因素检验的激励计划对观察到的个人生育率的因果关系。目的我们调查移民在提高生育能力方面的作用，超出了澳大利亚出生人口的能力。这项政策的影响在很大程度上取决于货币刺激措施在提高生育率方面的有效性，但尚不清楚是谁推动了这种影响。方法我们采用三重差异（DDD）策略来评估准实验环境中生育与引入婴儿奖金之间的关系。我们通过使用倾向得分匹配评估准实验设置。结果我们的研究结果突出了移民妇女在推动政策成功方面的作用。此外，发现在人力资本水平低的移民妇女中影响最大，随着年龄的增长而减少。结论结果表明，移民，尤其是年轻劳动力在老龄化社会中的作用可能比以前所认为的要大。贡献本文不仅为分析澳大利亚范围内的产前政策提供了空间，而且研究了其对移民妇女相对于土著妇女的影响。我们发现移民的贡献对于推动成功的产前金钱激励措施具有重要意义。