Background: Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced relatively high population growth, which raises concerns about the potential contribution of large young cohorts, termed ‘youth bulges’, to unrest. Youth bulges, under the right circumstances, can expand productivity and boost economic growth, but they have also been found to enable civil war, corruption, and democracy collapse, especially where resources are scarce. Objective: This paper considers youth bulges characterised by high proportions of rural‒urban migrants and examines their effects on the likelihood of social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2013. Methods: United Nations data on urban and rural populations by age and sex is combined with the Social Conflict Analysis Database to create a cross-section time series dataset. Negative binomial models are used to examine the relationship between youth bulges and conflict using country level fixed effects. Results: The study finds that a migrant-based youth bulge does not increase the likelihood of urban social conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, female youth bulges, often neglected when studying conflict, are found to increase the likelihood of conflict. Conclusions: The overall disassociation between young rural‒urban migrants and social conflict is encouraging. All the same, women were found to play a role in conflict, and women should therefore be considered in future studies. Contribution: This article characterises the composition of youth bulges – an important factor that has previously been ignored ‒ by examining whether youth bulges composed largely of rural‒urban migrants are more likely to increase the likelihood of conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa.

中文翻译：

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撒哈拉以南非洲城市地区以移民为基础的青年膨胀与社会冲突

背景：撒哈拉以南非洲经历了相对较高的人口增长，这引起了人们对被称为“青年鼓舞”的庞大年轻群体对动荡的潜在贡献的关注。在适当情况下，青年人的崛起可以提高生产力并促进经济增长，但还发现青年激增会导致内战，腐败和民主崩溃，特别是在资源匮乏的情况下。目的：本文考虑了以农村郊区移民比例较高为特征的青年凸起，并研究了它们对撒哈拉以南非洲城市在1990年至2013年之间发生社会冲突的可能性的影响。方法：联合国按年龄和年龄分列的城市和农村人口数据性别与社会冲突分析数据库相结合，创建了一个横截面时间序列数据集。负二项式模型用于使用国家一级的固定效应来检验年轻人膨胀与冲突之间的关系。结果：研究发现，以移民为基础的年轻人膨胀并不会增加撒哈拉以南非洲城市发生社会冲突的可能性。此外，发现在研究冲突时经常被忽视的女性青年凸出增加了冲突的可能性。结论：年轻的农村城市移民与社会冲突之间的全面分离令人鼓舞。同样，发现妇女在冲突中发挥了作用，因此应在以后的研究中考虑妇女。贡献：