This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the British interwar economy. The first type of evidence examined is qualitative. The historical record shows that contemporaries regularly reported the incidence and consequences of major uncertainty shocks. The second type of evidence analysed is quantitative. Based on a new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from newspapers and vector autoregressions, the results suggest that uncertainty was an important source of economic fluctuations in Britain between the wars.

中文翻译：

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不确定性和大萧条†

本文研究了经济政策不确定性对英国两次战争之间经济的影响。检查的第一类证据是定性的。历史记录表明，同时代人定期报告重大不确定性冲击的发生率和后果。分析的第二种证据是定量的。基于报纸和向量自回归构造的新的经济政策不确定性指标，结果表明，不确定性是两次大战之间英国经济波动的重要来源。