We develop a multivariate time series model of employment in 19 sectors for Australia. We use this model to determine the long‐run effect of a 1% increase in economic activity in any chosen sector on aggregate employment. Our findings point to manufacturing and construction sectors as those that generate the largest positive spillovers for the aggregate economy. Moreover, we provide an interactive web‐based app that produces our model's forecasts based on any user‐specified scenario. As the restrictions associated with the COVID‐19 pandemic evolve, the sectoral employment multipliers together with these interactive tools will provide useful information for policymakers.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚的部门就业动态和COVID-19大流行

我们开发了澳大利亚19个行业的多元时间序列就业模型。我们使用此模型来确定任何选定部门的经济活动增加1％对总就业的长期影响。我们的发现指向制造业和建筑业，它们对整体经济产生了最大的正溢出效应。此外，我们提供了一个基于Web的交互式应用程序，该应用程序可以根据任何用户指定的方案生成模型的预测。随着与COVID-19大流行相关的限制的发展，部门就业乘数以及这些互动工具将为决策者提供有用的信息。