In this paper I adapt a common model used in economics to study the diffusion of innovations to model the transmission of a virus. Emphasis is placed on the evolution of the number of new infections and the cumulative total number of infections over time and how they might be influenced by different policies. Although the model is very simple it does yield some useful implications for public policy.

中文翻译：

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#FlattenTheCurve

在本文中，我采用了经济学中常用的一个模型来研究创新的扩散，从而对病毒的传播进行建模。重点是随着时间的推移，新感染数量的演变和累计感染总数，以及它们如何受到不同政策的影响。尽管该模型非常简单，但确实对公共政策产生了有益的启示。