This paper aims to develop an uncertainty thermometer to identify and measure the macro‐social‐financial risk of 10 SA countries from 1978 to 2014. This thermometer is based on the early warning models to facilitate systemic risk monitoring. Contrary to other studies, we build a macroeconomic‐social‐financial vulnerability index composed of macroeconomic, social development, liquidity, solvency and market vulnerability sub‐indicators through the partial least squares structural equation model. We identify high (unmanageable, intolerable and unstable) and low (manageable, moderate, stable and strong) risk levels using machine learning methods. Our results are robust and consistent, because the macroeconomic‐social‐financial index captures periods of high uncertainty presented in the region. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

中文翻译：

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测量南美国家宏观经济金融风险的不确定度温度计

本文旨在开发一种不确定性温度计，以识别和测量1978年至2014年间10个南非国家的宏观社会金融风险。该温度计基于预警模型，可促进系统风险监测。与其他研究相反，我们通过偏最小二乘结构方程模型建立了由宏观经济，社会发展，流动性，偿付能力和市场脆弱性子指标组成的宏观经济，社会，金融脆弱性指数。我们使用机器学习方法来识别高（不可管理，无法忍受和不稳定）和低（可管理，中等，稳定和强）风险水平。我们的结果是可靠且一致的，因为宏观经济，社会，金融指数反映了该地区存在的高度不确定性时期。分级为4 +©2020 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.