We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. Using novel identifying strategies and evaluation methods, we examine seven questions. First, how much have exogenous shocks to the SPR contributed to the variability in the real price of oil? Second, how much would a one-time exogenous reduction in the SPR lower the real price of oil? Third, are exogenous SPR releases partially or fully offset by increases in private sector oil inventories and how does this response affect the transmission of SPR policy shocks? Fourth, how effective were actual SPR policy interventions, consisting of sequences of exogenous changes in the SPR, at lowering the real price of oil? Fifth, are there differences in the effectiveness of SPR emergency drawdowns and SPR exchanges? Sixth, how much did the creation and expansion of the SPR contribute to higher real oil prices? Finally, how much would selling half of the oil in the SPR, as recently proposed by the White House, lower the global price of oil (and hence the U.S. price of motor gasoline) and how much fiscal revenue would it generate?

中文翻译：

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削减美国战略石油储备是否有助于稳定油价？

我们在全球石油市场的完全指定模型的背景下研究了美国战略石油储备 (SPR) 释放的功效，这些模型明确允许存储需求以及 SPR 的意外变化。使用新颖的识别策略和评估方法，我们研究了七个问题。首先，SPR 的外生冲击对石油实际价格的波动有多大影响？第二，SPR 的一次性外生减少会降低石油的实际价格多少？第三，外源性 SPR 释放是否被私营部门石油库存的增加部分或全部抵消，这种反应如何影响 SPR 政策冲击的传递？第四，实际 SPR 政策干预的效果如何，由 SPR 的外生变化序列组成，在降低石油的实际价格？第五，SPR紧急回撤和SPR交换的有效性有区别吗？第六，SPR 的创建和扩张对实际油价上涨的贡献有多大？最后，正如白宫最近提出的那样，在 SPR 中出售一半的石油会降低全球石油价格（从而降低美国车用汽油的价格），这将产生多少财政收入？