This paper discusses the potential long‐run effects of large‐scale unemployment during the COVID‐19 crisis in the labour market on vulnerable job losers and labour market entrants in the United States The paper begins by contrasting measures of the scale of job loss during the crisis These measures are paired with estimates from past recessions indicating that the costs of job loss and unemployment can reduce workers’ earnings and raise their mortality for several decades Focusing only on a subset of vulnerable job losers, the potential lifetime earnings losses from job loss related to the COVID‐19 pandemic are predicted to be up to $2 trillion Related losses in employment could imply a lasting reduction in the overall employment–population ratio For these workers, losses in potential life years could be up to 24 million Even at the low range, the resulting estimates are substantially larger than losses in potential life years from deaths directly due to COVID‐19 New labour market entrants are at risk to suffer long‐term losses in earnings and mortality as well Based partly on experiences in other countries, the paper discusses potential reforms to short‐time compensation programmes and unemployment insurance, which could help limit the short‐ and long‐term harm from layoffs going forward

中文翻译：

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迷失的一代：COVID-19 危机对失业者和劳动力市场进入者的长期影响，以及政策选择*

本文讨论了劳动力市场 COVID-19 危机期间大规模失业对美国弱势失业者和劳动力市场进入者的潜在长期影响。危机 这些措施与过去经济衰退的估计相结合，表明失业和失业的成本会在几十年内降低工人的收入并提高他们的死亡率预计 COVID-19 大流行的损失高达 2 万亿美元 相关的就业损失可能意味着整体就业人口比率的持续下降 对于这些工人来说，潜在生命年的损失可能高达 2400 万，即使在低范围内,由此产生的估计值远大于因 COVID-19 直接导致的死亡在潜在生命年中的损失 新劳动力市场进入者有可能遭受收入和死亡率的长期损失 部分基于其他国家的经验，本文讨论了对短期补偿计划和失业保险的潜在改革，这可能有助于限制裁员带来的短期和长期损害这可能有助于限制裁员带来的短期和长期危害这可能有助于限制裁员带来的短期和长期危害