Does migration cause crime? Drawing on recent migratory flows to Germany, I address this question by distinguishing two types of migrants: asylum seekers and recognized refugees. Using German administrative panel data from 2010 to 2015, I add to the literature by disentangling the direct crime impact of both groups from indirect crime responses by other citizens. For asylum seekers, I exploit dispersal policies and locational restrictions and find no causal impact on crime except for migration-specific offenses. For recognized refugees, who may endogenously move, I apply a shift-share instrument and find a positive association between the share of recognized refugees and the overall crime rate, which is driven by non-violent property crimes and frauds. The empirical results are robust to several robustness checks and prove consistent with theoretical expectations.

移民会导致犯罪吗？借助最近流向德国的移民，我通过区分两种类型的移民来解决这个问题：寻求庇护者和公认的难民。利用2010年至2015年德国行政管理小组的数据，我通过将这两个群体的直接犯罪影响与其他公民的间接犯罪反应区分开来，从而增加了文献资料。对于寻求庇护者，我利用分散政策和位置限制，除了针对移民的犯罪之外，没有发现对犯罪的因果关系。对于可能是内生性迁移的公认难民，我应用了变动份额工具，并发现了公认难民的份额与总体犯罪率之间存在正相关关系，这是由非暴力财产犯罪和欺诈行为驱动的。