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Establishment versus population growth in spatio-temporally varying environments
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-06 , DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2009
Patsy Haccou 1 , Maria Conceição Serra 2
Affiliation  

We consider situations where repeated invasion attempts occur from a source population into a receptor population over extended periods of time. The receptor population contains two locations that provide different expected offspring numbers to invaders. There is demographic stochasticity in offspring numbers. In addition, temporal variation causes local invader fitnesses to vary. We show that effects of environmental autocorrelation on establishment success depend on spatial covariance of the receptor subpopulations. In situations with a low spatial covariance this effect is positive, whereas high spatial covariance and/or high migration probabilities between the subpopulations causes the effect to be negative. This result reconciles seemingly contradictory results from the literature concerning effects of temporal variation on population dynamics with demographic stochasticity. We study an example in the context of genetic introgression, where invasions of cultivar plant genes occur through pollen flow from a source population into wild-type receptor populations, but our results have implications in a wider range of contexts, such as the spread of exotic species, metapopulation dynamics and epidemics.

中文翻译:

在时空变化的环境中建立与人口增长

我们考虑了在很长一段时间内从源群体到受体群体的反复入侵尝试的情况。受体种群包含两个位置,为入侵者提供不同的预期后代数量。后代数量存在人口统计学随机性。此外,时间变化会导致局部入侵者适应度发生变化。我们表明,环境自相关对建立成功的影响取决于受体亚群的空间协方差。在具有低空间协方差的情况下,这种影响是积极的,而高空间协方差和/或亚群之间的高迁移概率会导致这种影响是消极的。这一结果调和了文献中关于时间变化对人口动态的影响与人口随机性的看似矛盾的结果。我们在遗传渗入的背景下研究了一个例子,其中栽培品种植物基因的入侵是通过花粉从源种群流入野生型受体种群而发生的,但我们的结果在更广泛的背景下具有影响,例如外来物种的传播物种、种群动态和流行病。
更新日期:2021-01-06
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