ABSTRACT

This work proposes a modeling framework to quantify the effects of deliberate organic contamination events on water distribution systems. A bacterial regrowth model and a first parallel chlorine decay model were combined to describe the biochemical water species kinetics during a deliberate contaminant injection consisting of organic (TOC) and bacterial loads. Several attacks were modeled using EPANET-MSX. The impact of each attack was quantified using vulnerability indexes measuring the number of consumers affected and other metrics. These vulnerability indexes were then used to depict the network’s response to a potential threat and identify the most critical areas of the network. A sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine the network’s sensitivity to three dynamic network variables (mass injection, injection duration, and organic carbon concertation in water). An increase on bacterial populations was observed during the contaminant spread to the network, which in turn signals additional health risk to consumers.

摘要

这项工作提出了一个建模框架，以量化蓄意的有机污染事件对水分配系统的影响。结合细菌再生模型和第一个平行氯衰变模型来描述在故意注入有机物和细菌的污染物过程中生化水的动力学。使用EPANET-MSX对几种攻击进行了建模。使用衡量受影响的消费者数量和其他指标的漏洞指数来量化每次攻击的影响。然后，使用这些漏洞指数来描述网络对潜在威胁的响应，并确定网络中最关键的区域。还进行了敏感性分析，以确定网络对三个动态网络变量（质量注入，注入持续时间，和水中的有机碳协同作用）。在污染物传播到网络的过程中观察到细菌种群的增加，这反过来又向消费者发出了健康风险的信号。