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Autumn Phenology and Its Covariation with Climate, Spring Phenology and Annual Peak Growth on the Mongolian Plateau
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology ( IF 6.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108312
Gang Bao , Hugejiletu Jin , Siqin Tong , Jiquan Chen , Xiaojun Huang , Yuhai Bao , Changliang Shao , Urtnasan Mandakh , Mark Chopping , Lingtong Du

Using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate data, we calculated the end of the growing season (EOS; unit: day-of-year (DOY)) on the Mongolian Plateau and explored the effects of the climate, the start of the growing season (SOS), and the annual peak growth (APG, unit: NDVI) of vegetation and its timing (peak growth time, PGT) on the EOS for the period of 1982-2013. The spatial distribution pattern of the EOS on the plateau presented a gradual delay from south to north in Mongolia and from southwest to northeast in Inner Mongolia, and spatially it was highly related to vegetation producty. During 1982-2013, the area-averaged EOS varied between 265.2 and 278.3, and showed a slight but non-significant advancing trend of 0.6 days decade–1, with a breaking point occurring in 1993. This insignificant advance resulted from substantial spatial heterogeneities of the trend in EOS, with advances in widespread grassland-dominated regions and delays in southwestern Inner Mongolia. Preseason air temperature (preseason means of the periods prior to the EOS date related to the EOS variation) exerted positive effects on the EOS in wet and cold areas in northern Mongolia, while preseason precipitation exerted positive effects in widespread arid and semiarid regions in central grassland regions, with different preseason lengths varying according to meteorological variables and locations. More importantly, we identified strong influences of the SOS (r=0.46, p=0.008), APG (r=0.35, p=0.05), and PGT (r=0.76, p<0.001) on the EOS, which was almost universal for all biomes, suggesting first a strong carryover effect through seasonal cycles of plants on the EOS and second that meteorological variables alone may not fully explain the mechanism of EOS variations. We conclude that these carryover effects, which may be not well considered in current EOS studies, should be incorporated into the prediction model of EOS.



中文翻译:

蒙古高原秋季物候及其与气候,春季物候和年峰值增长的协变

使用归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)和气候数据,我们计算了蒙古高原上生长期的结束时间(EOS;单位:年日(DOY)),并探讨了气候的影响, 1982年至2013年期间EOS上植被的生长期(SOS),年峰值生长(APG,单位:NDVI)及其时间(峰值生长时间,PGT)。高原上EOS的空间分布格局呈现出从南到北,内蒙古从西南到东北的逐渐延迟,并且在空间上与植被生产力高度相关。在1982年至2013年期间,面积平均EOS在265.2至278.3之间变化,并显示出略微但不显着的前进趋势,即10十年–1,其突破点发生在1993年。这种微不足道的进展是由于EOS趋势在空间上的异质性所致,在广泛的以草地为主的地区有所进展,而在内蒙古西南部则有所延误。季前气温(与EOS变化有关的EOS日期前的季前平均值)对蒙古北部湿冷地区的EOS产生积极影响,而季前降水在中部草原广泛的干旱和半干旱地区产生积极影响季前长度随气象变量和位置而异的区域。更重要的是,我们确定了SOS(r = 0.46,p = 0.008),APG(r = 0.35,p = 0.05)和PGT(r = 0.76,p <0.001)对EOS的强烈影响,这几乎是普遍的对于所有生物群落 提示首先是通过植物的季节性周期对EOS产生了强烈的残留效应,其次表明仅靠气象变量可能无法完全解释EOS变化的机理。我们得出的结论是,在当前EOS研究中可能未充分考虑的这些残留效应应纳入EOS的预测模型中。

更新日期:2021-01-06
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