This paper modifies a conventional empirical macroeconomic model of the housing market to demonstrate the pivotal role of land prices not only for house prices but also for housing supply. Building on the land leverage hypothesis, the impacts of macroeconomic shocks are shown to differ in magnitude but not in sign for the construction and land price component of house prices. We argue that land prices are also an important channel of shock transmission to residential investment. The model features a supply response, which is allowed to vary depending on whether the macroeconomic impulses are transmitted via construction or land prices. The positive supply effects of expansionary shocks work via their positive effects on land prices. In contrast, construction price rises in an improving macroeconomic environment tend to dampen residential investment, while they add upward pressure to overall house prices. Thr the lens of the model we provide typical elasticities for the German housing market.

本文修改了传统的住房市场经验宏观经济模型，以证明土地价格不仅对房价而且对住房供应都起着举足轻重的作用。在土地杠杆假说的基础上，宏观经济冲击的影响在规模上有所不同，但对房价的建设和土地价格成分却没有影响。我们认为，土地价格也是冲击住宅投资的重要渠道。该模型具有供给响应，可以根据宏观经济冲动是通过建筑还是通过土地价格传递而变化。扩张性冲击对土地价格的积极影响会产生积极的供给影响。相反，在宏观经济环境改善的情况下，建筑价格上涨往往会抑制住宅投资，同时给整体房价增加上行压力。通过该模型的镜头，我们为德国住房市场提供了典型的弹性。