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The potential of high-speed rail freight in Europe: how is a modal shift from road to rail possible for low-density high value cargo?
European Transport Research Review ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-05 , DOI: 10.1186/s12544-020-00453-3
Mathias Boehm , Marlin Arnz , Joachim Winter

A fully electrified transport chain offers considerable potential for CO2 savings. In this paper, we examine the conditions necessary to introduce a fully electrified, large-scale, high-speed rail freight transport system in Europe in addition to high-speed passenger trains, aiming to shift goods transport from road to rail. We compare a novel high-speed rail freight concept with road-based lorry transport for low-density high value goods to estimate the potential for a modal shift from road to rail in 2030. To characterize the impacts of different framework conditions, a simulation tool was designed as a discrete choice model, based on random utility theory, with integrated performance calculation assessing the full multimodal transport chain regarding costs, emissions and time. It was applied to a European reference scenario based on forecast data for freight traffic in 2030. We show that high-speed rail freight is about 70% more expensive than the conventional lorry but emits 80% less CO2 emissions for the baseline parameter setting. The expected mode share largely depends on the cargo’s value of time, while the implementation of a CO2-tax of 100 EUR/tCO2eq has an insignificant impact. The costs of handling goods and the infrastructure charges are highly influential variables. High-speed rail track access charges are a suitable political instrument to create a level playing field between the transport modes and internalize external costs of freight transport. With the given access charge structure, a reduction of the maximum operating speed to 160 km/h has a positive impact on the expected mode share of rail transport while it still reacts positively to a wide range of the cargo’s time sensitivity (compared to a maximum operating speed of 350 km/h). The flexibility of rail freight’s operating speed is important for an effective implementation. Further research should concentrate on time- and cost-efficient transhipment terminals as they have a significant impact on transport performance.

中文翻译:

欧洲高铁货运的潜力:对于低密度高价值货物,如何实现从公路到铁路的模式转换?

完全电气化的运输链为节省二氧化碳提供了巨大潜力。在本文中,我们研究了除高速客运列车之外,在欧洲引入全面电气化,大规模,高铁货运系统的必要条件,旨在将货物运输从公路转移到铁路。我们将一种新颖的高铁货运概念与基于道路的货车运输用于低密度高价值货物进行比较,以估算2030年从公路到铁路的运输方式转变的潜力。为表征不同框架条件的影响,使用了一种仿真工具该模型基于随机效用理论设计为离散选择模型,并通过综合性能计算来评估有关成本,排放和时间的完整多式联运链。基于2030年货运量预测数据,将其应用于欧洲参考情景。我们显示,高铁货运的价格比传统货车贵70%,但对于基线参数设置,其二氧化碳排放量减少80%。预期方式份额在很大程度上取决于货物的时间价值,而实施100欧元/吨二氧化碳当量的二氧化碳税影响不大。处理货物的成本和基础设施费用是影响很大的变量。高速铁路通道收费是在运输方式之间建立公平竞争环境并内部化货运的外部成本的合适政治手段。使用给定的访问费结构,将最大运行速度降低至160 km / h会对铁路运输的预期模式份额产生积极影响,同时仍对多种时间敏感性货物产生积极影响(相比最大运行速度为350 km / h )。铁路货运运行速度的灵活性对于有效实施至关重要。进一步的研究应集中在具有时间和成本效益的转运码头上,因为它们对运输性能有重大影响。
更新日期:2021-01-05
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