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Integrated hazards maps of the Tacaná Volcanic complex, Mexico-Guatemala: Ashfall, block-and-ash flows, and lahars
Journal of South American Earth Sciences ( IF 1.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jsames.2020.103146
Rosario Vázquez , José Luis Macías , José Luis Arce

The Tacaná Volcanic Complex (TVC) is an active volcano, located on the border between Mexico and Guatemala, in the westernmost part of the Central American Volcanic Arc. The TVC has produced effusive and explosive activity during the past 300 ka through the emplacement of lava flows, pyroclastic deposits, debris avalanches and lahars. During the last 10 ka, at least 11 eruptions have occurred, with three small phreatic explosions documented in 1855–1856, 1949 and 1986. This work presents volcanic hazards maps of the TVC that integrate the results of analyzing two eruptive style scenarios: dome-collapses and Plinian-type eruptions and the lahars triggered by both these hazards. The extents and expected distributions for each of these phenomena were assessed using numerical models and the results were calibrated with recent field data. The simulation results were merged to prepare three new volcanic hazards maps, which depict on a color scale the hazard level forecasted for each phenomenon (high – red, moderate – orange, and low – yellow). The maps show that the total extension of block-and-ash flows will be restricted towards the volcano base, reaching a maximum distance towards Guatemala of ~5 km, and ~10 km in Mexico; while lahars could reach up to 50 km downstream along the main rivers that drains the complex (i.e. Coatán, Cahoacán and Suchiate rivers) that would flood important urban centers mostly over Mexican territory. Ashfall would cover an area of ca. 8000 km2, inhabited by ~2 million people in both countries. Hence, renewed eruptive activity of the TVC would be catastrophic not only because of the loss of human life but also for its adverse impact on economic activity based on corn, coffee, and banana plantations, together with the disruption of communication and transportation systems between Mexico and Central America.



中文翻译:

墨西哥-危地马拉塔卡纳火山综合体的综合危害图:灰烬下降,灰烬流和火山口

塔卡纳火山综合体(TVC)是活火山,位于墨西哥和危地马拉之间的边界,在中美洲火山弧最西端。在过去的300 ka内,TVC通过熔岩流,火山碎屑沉积,碎屑雪崩和拉哈斯的喷发产生了爆发性和爆炸性活动。在最近10 ka期间,至少发生了11次喷发,并在1855–1856年,1949年和1986年记录了3次小型潜水炸弹爆炸。该工作展示了TVC的火山危害图,该图整合了对两种喷发样式情景的分析结果:崩溃和普利尼式喷发以及这两种危险触发的通俗称呼。使用数值模型评估了每种现象的程度和预期分布,并使用最新的现场数据对结果进行了校准。合并模拟结果,以准备三个新的火山灾害图,它们在色标上描述每种现象(高–红色,中–橙色和低–黄色)预测的危害等级。这些地图显示,火山灰和火山灰的总扩散将被限制在火山底部,到达危地马拉的最大距离约为5公里,在墨西哥约为10公里。拉哈尔河沿排干河道的主要河流(即科阿坦河,卡霍阿坎河和苏奇特河)的主要河流向下游延伸达50公里,这些洪水将淹没墨西哥境内的重要城市中心。灰烬将覆盖约一个区域。8000公里 这些地图显示,火山灰和火山灰的总扩散将被限制在火山底部,到达危地马拉的最大距离约为5公里,在墨西哥约为10公里。拉哈尔河沿排干河道的主要河流(即科阿坦河,卡霍阿坎河和苏奇特河)的主要河流向下游延伸达50公里,这些洪水将淹没墨西哥境内的重要城市中心。灰烬将覆盖约一个区域。8000公里 这些地图显示,火山灰和火山灰的总扩散将被限制在火山底部,到达危地马拉的最大距离约为5公里,在墨西哥约为10公里。拉哈尔河沿排干河道的主要河流(即科阿坦河,卡霍阿坎河和苏奇特河)的主要河流向下游延伸达50公里,这些洪水将淹没墨西哥境内的重要城市中心。灰烬将覆盖约一个区域。8000公里2,两国共有约200万人居住。因此,TVC的重新爆发活动将是灾难性的,这不仅是因为生命的丧失,而且还因为它对基于玉米,咖啡和香蕉种植园的经济活动的不利影响,以及墨西哥之间的通讯和运输系统的中断和中美洲。

更新日期:2021-01-10
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