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Precipitation cycles in Turkey
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-05 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03490-z
Erkan Yılmaz , Yılmaz Akdi , Esra Uğurca , İhsan Çiçek , Cemal Atakan

Turkey is located in the temperate zone; thus, it is influenced by regionally different air masses during summers and winters, resulting in different precipitation regimes. Often, systems with varying masses of air repeatedly affect Turkey; however, at times, these periods are disrupted and difficult to predict. This study analyzes whether a certain periodicity exists in the seasonal and annual total precipitation of 74 meteorological stations in Turkey using periodograms. The analyses conducted herein showed more than one period in the series; therefore, this study was extended, and the first six periods were examined. As a result, we found 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year precipitation cycles (PCs) in the short term; 6-, 7-, and 8-year PCs in the medium term; and 11-, 12-, 14-, 17-, and 21-year PCs in the long term in Turkey’s PC. While seasonal distributions exhibited similarities, there were significant differences in the seasonal frequencies owing to seasonal variations in the systems affecting Turkey. The cycles vary by region, and some of these cycles can be found in each region. Three cycles have been identified in Turkey according to frequency and length, namely: (1) short-term cycle across Turkey; (2) Eastern and Central Anatolia, the Black Sea, and Aegean regions; and (3) borders of Central Anatolian and the eastern Mediterranean region. A cluster identifies unrelated locations as the affected local factors. Cycles are connected to the NAO, whereas solar activity is observed throughout Turkey. The analysis showed that certain cycles were repeated and were not dominant in each period, with the best example of this cycle as the 7–14–21 consecutive cycles.



中文翻译:

土耳其的降水周期

土耳其位于温带地区。因此,它在夏季和冬季受到区域性空气质量的影响,从而导致不同的降水方式。通常,空气质量不断变化的系统会反复影响土耳其;但是,有时这些时期会被打乱并且难以预测。本研究使用周期图分析了土耳其74个气象站的季节性和年度降水总量中是否存在一定的周期性。本文进行的分析显示,该系列有多个时期;因此,这项研究得到了扩展,并检查了前六个时期。结果,我们在短期内发现了2年,3年,4年和5年的降水周期(PCs)。中期6、7和8年PC;从长远来看,在11、12、14、17和21年的PC中将使用土耳其的PC。尽管季节性分布表现出相似性,但由于影响土耳其的系统的季节性变化,季节性频率存在显着差异。周期因地区而异,其中一些周期可以在每个区域中找到。根据频率和长度,在土耳其确定了三个周期,即:(1)整个土耳其的短期周期;(2)安纳托利亚东部和中部,黑海和爱琴海地区;(3)中安纳托利亚中部和地中海东部地区的边界。群集将不相关的位置标识为受影响的本地因素。周期与NAO相关,而整个土耳其都有太阳活动。分析表明,某些周期在每个周期中都是重复的,而不是占主导地位,该周期的最佳示例是连续的7-14-21个周期。

更新日期:2021-01-05
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