We present a study about the integrated impact of adaptive management and climate change using spatially explicit tools at first time for assessing changes in forest ecosystem services in South Korea. The aims of this study were to (i) project potential changes among forest ecosystem services under various scenarios, (ii) assess the impact of forest management (Sc1, controlled; Sc2, business as usual; and Sc3, adaptive management) and climate change through comparison among them, and (iii) find insight for strategies to implementing both sustainable society and environment. For this purpose, the integrated tool was applied to analyze the changes in five ecosystem services: forest carbon storage, carbon sequestration, industrial wood production, freshwater supply, and forest recreation. The simulated results show that the ratio of these five ecosystem services of Sc3-to-Sc2 in the 2040s was estimated as 88.4%, 114.7%, 105.4%, 228.2%, and 86.5%, respectively. These results showed clear trade-offs between industrial wood production and freshwater supply on one side and forest recreation and forest carbon storage on the other side. In the case of carbon sequestration, the harvest activity might provide a negative effect in the short term, but it with a longer term perspective could be positive through reforestation activity. In addition, this study showed that future climate change until 2050 in Korea could have a generally negative influence on forest carbon sequestration but that these negative effects could be partly offset through harvest management. Therefore, the plans of the spatial distribution of management activities for the equilibrium of demand and supply in ecosystem services should be required.

我们首次使用空间明确工具介绍了有关自适应管理和气候变化的综合影响的研究，以评估韩国森林生态系统服务的变化。这项研究的目的是（i）预测各种情景下森林生态系统服务之间的潜在变化，（ii）评估森林管理（Sc1，受控； Sc2，照常营业； Sc3，适应性管理）和气候变化的影响通过比较，以及（iii）寻找实施可持续社会和环境战略的见识。为此，该综合工具被用于分析五种生态系统服务的变化：森林碳储存，碳固存，工业木材生产，淡水供应和森林休闲。模拟结果表明，在2040年代，这三种生态系统服务的Sc3-to-Sc2比例分别估计为88.4％，114.7％，105.4％，228.2％和86.5％。这些结果表明，一方面是工业木材生产和淡水供应，另一方面是森林休闲和森林碳储存之间的明显权衡。在固碳的情况下，采伐活动可能在短期内产生负面影响，但从更长远的角度来看，通过植树造林活动可能会产生积极影响。此外，这项研究表明，韩国直到2050年的未来气候变化可能对森林固碳产生总体负面影响，但这些负面影响可以通过采伐管理得到部分抵消。因此，