The drought has enormous adverse effects on agriculture, water resources and environment, and causes damages around the world. Drought risk assessment and prioritization of drought management can help decision makers and planners to manage the adverse effects of drought. This paper aims to determine the risk of drought in Iran. At the first stage, standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the period 1981–2016. Then the probability map of different drought classes or drought hazard probability map were prepared. After that the indicator-based vulnerability assessment method was used to determine the drought vulnerability index. Five indices including climate, topography, waterway density, land use and groundwater resources were chosen as the most critical factors of drought in Iran and followed by the analytical hierarchy process questionnaire, the weights of each index were obtained based on expert opinions. Fuzzy membership maps of each index and sub-index were prepared using ArcGIS software. The drought vulnerability map of Iran was plotted using these weights and maps of each indicator. Finally, the drought risk map of Iran was provided by multiplying drought hazard and vulnerability maps. According to the 43-completed questionnaires by experts, climate index has the highest vulnerability to drought. Climate does not have an important role in drought hazard index, but it is the most crucial factor to classified drought vulnerability index. The results showed that central, northeast, southeast and west parts of Iran are at high risks of drought. There are regions with different risks in Iran due to unusual weather and climatic conditions. We realized that the climate and the groundwater situation is almost the same in the central, east and south parts of Iran, because the land use plays a crucial role in the drought vulnerability and risk in these areas. The drought risk decreases from the center of Iran to the southwest and northwest.

中文翻译：

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使用 GIS 技术评估伊朗的干旱灾害、脆弱性和风险

干旱对农业、水资源和环境产生巨大的不利影响，并在世界范围内造成破坏。干旱风险评估和干旱管理的优先次序可以帮助决策者和规划者管理干旱的不利影响。本文旨在确定伊朗发生干旱的风险。第一阶段计算了 1981-2016 年的标准化降水指数（SPI）。然后制作不同干旱等级的概率图或干旱灾害概率图。之后采用基于指标的脆弱性评估方法确定干旱脆弱性指数。气候、地形、航道密度等五个指标，选择土地利用和地下水资源作为伊朗干旱的最关键因素，然后进行层次分析法问卷，根据专家意见得出各指标的权重。使用ArcGIS 软件制作了每个索引和子索引的模糊隶属关系图。伊朗的干旱脆弱性地图是使用这些权重和每个指标的地图绘制的。最后，通过将干旱灾害和脆弱性地图相乘，提供了伊朗的干旱风险地图。根据专家完成的 43 份问卷，气候指数对干旱的脆弱性最高。气候在干旱灾害指数中并不起重要作用，但它是划分干旱脆弱性指数的最关键因素。结果表明，中部、东北、伊朗东南部和西部地区面临干旱的高风险。由于异常的天气和气候条件，伊朗存在不同风险的地区。我们意识到伊朗中部、东部和南部的气候和地下水情况几乎相同，因为土地利用在这些地区的干旱脆弱性和风险中起着至关重要的作用。干旱风险从伊朗中部向西南和西北递减。