Background and Aim: The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a number of instances of large-scale panic buying. Taking the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, this paper explores the impact of panic in uncertain environments on panic buying behavior. Under certain circumstances, the spread of rumors about shortage of goods is likely to cause large-scale panic buying. This paper focuses on the study of such panic buying caused by online rumors.
Methods: Firstly, based on the improved BA network, this paper constructs a directed network for public opinion communication and integrates an offline communication network to build a two-layer synchronous coupling network based on online and offline communications. Secondly, the individual decision model and the panic emotion transmission model under the uncertain environment are constructed. Netizens judge the authenticity of network information, determine their own panic degree according to the above two models, and judge whether they participate in the panic buying based on the above factors. Finally, the spread of the public opinion of goods buying under the panic state is simulated and analyzed.
Results: The experimental results of the two-layer synchronous network that integrates offline interaction are significantly different from the results of pure online interaction, which increases the speed of public opinions spread after offline interaction and affects a wider range of groups. Under the condition of sufficient supplies, panic in local areas will not cause large-scale panic buying on the whole network. However, the results under the same parameters suggest that if there is a shortage of supplies, panic will spread quickly across the network, leading to large-scale panic buying. It is very important to ensure sufficient supply of materials at the beginning of the spread of rumors, which can reduce the number of buyers. However, if there is a shortage of goods before the panic dissipates in the later stage, there will still be a large-scale rush purchase.
Conclusion: These results explain the reasons why it is difficult to stop the buying events in many areas under the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the uncertain environment, the panic caused by people’s fear of stock shortage promotes the occurrence of large-scale rush buying. Therefore, in the event of major public health events, ensuring adequate supply of materials is the top priority.

Keywords: panic buying, public opinion transmission, two-layer synchronous coupling network, COVID-19 pandemic, computational communication


中文翻译：

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基于计算传播范式：模拟 COVID-19 大流行期间恐慌性购买的舆论传播过程

背景和目的： COVID-19 大流行的蔓延导致了一些大规模的恐慌性购买事件。本文以 COVID-19 大流行为例，探讨了不确定环境下的恐慌对恐慌性购买行为的影响。在某些情况下，断货谣言的传播很可能引起大规模的恐慌性抢购。本文重点研究网络谣言引发的这种恐慌性抢购。
方法：首先，在改进的BA网络的基础上，构建了一个有向的舆论传播网络，并融合了一个离线的传播网络，构建了一个基于线上和线下传播的两层同步耦合网络。其次，构建了不确定环境下的个体决策模型和恐慌情绪传递模型。网友判断网络信息的真实性，根据以上两种模型判断自己的恐慌程度，根据以上因素判断自己是否参与了抢购。最后对恐慌状态下的抢购舆情传播进行了模拟分析。
结果：融合线下互动的二层同步网络的实验结果与纯线上互动的结果有显着差异，使得线下互动后舆论传播速度加快，影响的群体范围更广。在货源充足的情况下，局部恐慌不会引起全网大规模恐慌性抢购。然而，相同参数下的结果表明，如果出现供应短缺，恐慌将在网络中迅速蔓延，导致大规模恐慌性抢购。在谣言传播之初确保充足的材料供应非常重要，这可以减少购买者的数量。但是，如果在后期恐慌情绪消散之前出现缺货，
结论：这些结果解释了在 COVID-19 大流行下许多地区难以停止购买活动的原因。在不确定的环境下，人们对缺货的恐惧所引发的恐慌，助长了大规模抢购的发生。因此，在发生重大公共卫生事件时，保障物资充足供应是重中之重。

关键词：抢购，舆论传播，两层同步耦合网络，COVID-19大流行，计算通信