Postelection surveys regularly overestimate voter turnout by 10 points or more. This article provides the first comprehensive documentation of the turnout gap in three major ongoing surveys (the General Social Survey, Current Population Survey, and American National Election Studies), evaluates explanations for it, interprets its significance, and suggests means to continue evaluating and improving survey measurements of turnout. Accuracy was greater in face-to-face than telephone interviews, consistent with the notion that the former mode engages more respondent effort with less social desirability bias. Accuracy was greater when respondents were asked about the most recent election, consistent with the hypothesis that forgetting creates errors. Question wordings designed to minimize source confusion and social desirability bias improved accuracy. Rates of reported turnout were lower with proxy reports than with self-reports, which may suggest greater accuracy of proxy reports. People who do not vote are less likely to participate in surveys than voters are.

中文翻译：

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调查中的投票率差距

选举后调查经常高估选民投票率 10 个百分点或更多。本文首次全面记录了正在进行的三项主要调查（综合社会调查、当前人口调查和美国全国选举研究）中的投票率差距，评估了对其的解释，解释了其意义，并提出了继续评估和改进的方法投票率的调查测量。面对面访谈的准确性高于电话访谈，这与前一种模式使受访者付出更多努力而减少社会期望偏见的观点一致。当受访者被问及最近的选举时，准确度更高，这与遗忘会导致错误的假设一致。旨在最大限度地减少来源混淆和社会期望偏差的问题措辞提高了准确性。代理报告的报告投票率低于自我报告，这可能表明代理报告的准确性更高。与选民相比，不投票的人参与调查的可能性较小。