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Welfare costs of bilateral currency crises: The role of international trade
International Finance ( IF 1.204 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-28 , DOI: 10.1111/infi.12385
Hakan Yilmazkuday 1
Affiliation  

This paper shows that bilateral currency crises reduce bilateral trade up to 50% after controlling for the depreciation rate. Using a trade model, these reductions are connected to the welfare costs of currency crises. The results show that a single currency crisis can result in welfare reductions through changes in international trade corresponding to more than 10% (and up to 41%) of the costs of autarky for 23 different currency crisis episodes between 1960 and 2014. These welfare costs are also shown to be greater than the welfare gains from having free trade agreements and using common currencies for 25 different currency crisis episodes.

中文翻译:

双边货币危机的福利成本:国际贸易的作用

本文表明,在控制了贬值率之后,双边货币危机使双边贸易最多减少了50%。使用贸易模型,这些减少与货币危机的福利成本相关。结果表明,单一的货币危机可能会通过国际贸易的变化导致福利减少,这相当于在1960年至2014年之间发生了23种不同的货币危机时,自给自足的成本超过了10%(最高为41%)。这些福利成本事实也表明,与25个不同的货币危机事件相比,通过签订自由贸易协定和使用通用货币获得的福利收益要更大。
更新日期:2020-12-28
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