Recent decades have seen the proliferation of risk assessment implementation and, subsequently, validation studies. Most assessments are used at the front end, at arrest or postdisposition for juvenile offenders. The current study develops an overall risk score and risk classification levels from a tool developed specifically for use with youth within residential placement in efforts to predict reentry success. A diverse, 4-year statewide sample of serious juvenile offenders (N = 15,078) is examined. The total risk score and classification schematic development are outlined, predictive validity assessed, and the ability of the classification to partition youth into meaningful subgroups of overall risk to reoffend analyzed. Results show predictive validity on par with prominent juvenile tools, which is noteworthy given the sample exclusivity: serious offenders in residential placement. Further, the tool classifies youth into five distinct groups with meaningful dispersion across groups with differing recidivism base rates. Implications for juvenile reentry are discussed.

中文翻译：

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预测少年再入成功

近几十年来，风险评估实施以及随后的验证研究激增。大多数评估是在少年罪犯的前端，逮捕或处置后使用的。当前的研究通过专门开发的工具开发总体风险评分和风险分类级别，该工具专门用于安置在住宅中的年轻人，以预测重新入职的成功。我们对全州范围内的严重少年犯进行了为期4年的多样化抽样调查（N = 15,078）。概述了总风险评分和分类示意图的发展，评估了预测效度，并分析了分类将年轻人划分为有意义的总体风险亚组的能力，以降低犯罪风险。结果显示出与主要的青少年工具相当的预测有效性，考虑到样品的排他性，这一点值得注意：严重的罪犯在住宅安置。此外，该工具将青年人分为五个不同的组，在具有不同累犯基准率的组之间进行有意义的分散。讨论了对青少年折返的影响。