In their seminal article, Roberts and Pashler (2000) highlighted that providing a good fit to empirical data does not necessarily provide strong support for a theory. For a good fit to be persuasive and for a theory to be strongly supported, the theory should have survived a strong test, in the sense that it is plausible that the theory might have failed the test. The most common way to accommodate the problem of the limited value of a good fit alone is to not only report a measure of goodness-of-fit, but also a measure of the complexity. A recent example of this line of reasoning is provided by Veksler, Myers, and Gluck (2015). In this article, I argue that whereas considering complexity provides useful information when theory testing, using complexity to gauge the severity of a test, or, equivalently, the persuasiveness of a good fit, is misguided. The reason is that complexity only provides information about the possibility of a bad fit, which does not guarantee a strong test. A condition for a test to be strong and a good fit to be persuasive is the demonstration of the plausibility of a bad fit. I provide a worked example of a more complete answer to assessing whether a good fit is persuasive. Providing a strong theory test requires the use of what can be called a data prior, which quantifies-before taking the empirical data into account-which outcomes are plausible. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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使用先验预测和先验数据进行强大的理论测试。

Roberts和Pashler（2000）在开创性的文章中强调指出，为经验数据提供良好的契合并不一定为理论提供强有力的支持。为了使一个合理的说服力和一个理论得到强有力的支持，该理论应该经受住了严峻的考验，从某种意义上说，该理论可能没有通过测试。单独解决一项良好拟合的有限价值问题的最常见方法是不仅报告一种拟合优度的度量，而且还报告一种复杂性的度量。Veksler，Myers和Gluck（2015）提供了这种推理方法的最新示例。在本文中，我认为，虽然在理论测试中考虑复杂性会提供有用的信息，但使用复杂性来衡量测试的严重性或等效地说服良好的说服力，被误导了。原因是复杂性仅提供有关不合适的可能性的信息，而不能保证进行严格的测试。一个测试要强而合适的说服力的条件是证明不合适的合理性。我提供了一个更完整的答案的实用示例，以评估一个合适的选择是否具有说服力。提供强大的理论检验要求使用所谓的数据先验，即在考虑经验数据之前先进行量化，然后得出合理的结果。（PsycINFO数据库记录（c）2019 APA，保留所有权利）。一个测试要强而有说服力的条件就是证明不合适的合理性。我提供了一个更完整的答案的实用示例，以评估一个合适的选择是否具有说服力。提供强大的理论检验要求使用所谓的数据先验，即在考虑经验数据之前先进行量化，然后得出合理的结果。（PsycINFO数据库记录（c）2019 APA，保留所有权利）。一个测试要强而合适的说服力的条件是不匹配的合理性的证明。我提供了一个工作示例，用于评估是否合适的说服力更完整的答案。提供强大的理论检验要求使用所谓的数据先验，即在考虑经验数据之前进行量化，然后得出合理的结果。（PsycINFO数据库记录（c）2019 APA，保留所有权利）。