Extant research suggests that the desirability of an outcome influences the way an individual makes a prediction. The current research investigated how an outcome’s desirability influences the extent to which an individual evaluates its probability when making a prediction. Two studies were conducted using a single binary prediction based on the urn model. Individuals predicted which color—red or blue—a ball drawn from a bag would be, while being aware of the proportion of each color in the bag. The results of the first study indicated that individuals predicted the more probable outcome regardless of the probabilities of two outcomes. However, when the less probable outcome was more desirable, the proportion of predictions became significantly correlated and better calibrated to the actual probability. This result was interpreted as showing that, when motivated to predict the more desirable but less probable outcome, individuals evaluate its probability more effortfully. This interpretation was tested in the second study. When the probabiity- matching motivation was implemented, the proportion of individuals who predicted the less probable outcome increased significantly. However, when the less probable outcome was more desirable, the same motivation did not significantly increase the proportion of such individuals. Taken together, these results imply that individuals likely process the same probability informatio differently based on whether this information is useful for predicting a desirable outcome.

中文翻译：

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预测一个不太可能但比另一个更理想的结果

现有研究表明，结果的可取性会影响个人做出预测的方式。当前的研究调查了结果的可取性如何影响个人在做出预测时评估其概率的程度。使用基于 urn 模型的单个二进制预测进行了两项研究。个人预测从袋子中取出的球是哪种颜色（红色或蓝色），同时了解袋子中每种颜色的比例。第一项研究的结果表明，无论两个结果的概率如何，个体都会预测更有可能的结果。然而，当不太可能的结果更可取时，预测的比例变得显着相关并且更好地校准到实际概率。这个结果被解释为表明，当有动机预测更理想但不太可能的结果时，个人会更加努力地评估其概率。在第二项研究中测试了这种解释。当实施概率匹配动机时，预测不太可能结果的个体比例显着增加。然而，当不太可能的结果更可取时，同样的动机并没有显着增加这些人的比例。综上所述，这些结果意味着个人可能会根据该信息对预测理想结果是否有用而以不同方式处理相同的概率信息。当实施概率匹配动机时，预测不太可能结果的个体比例显着增加。然而，当不太可能的结果更可取时，同样的动机并没有显着增加这些人的比例。综上所述，这些结果意味着个人可能会根据该信息对预测理想结果是否有用而以不同方式处理相同的概率信息。当实施概率匹配动机时，预测不太可能结果的个体比例显着增加。然而，当不太可能的结果更可取时，同样的动机并没有显着增加这些人的比例。综上所述，这些结果意味着个人可能会根据该信息对预测理想结果是否有用而以不同方式处理相同的概率信息。