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Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates
Nature Energy ( IF 56.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-04 , DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-00740-2
Mine Isik 1 , Rebecca Dodder 2 , P Ozge Kaplan 2
Affiliation  

Like many cities around the world, New York City is establishing policies to reduce CO2 emissions from all energy sectors by 2050. Understanding the impact of varying degrees of electric vehicle adoption and CO2 intensities on emissions reduction in the city is critical. Here, using a technology-rich, bottom-up, energy system optimization model, we analyse the cost and air emissions impacts of New York City’s proposed CO2 reduction policies for the transportation sector through a scenario framework. Our analysis reveals that the electrification of light-duty vehicles at earlier periods is essential for deeper reductions in air emissions. When further combined with energy efficiency improvements, these actions contribute to CO2 reductions under the scenarios of more CO2-intense electricity. Substantial reliance on fossil fuels and a need for structural change pose challenges to cost-effective CO2 reductions in the transportation sector. Here we find that uncertainties associated with decarbonization of the electric grid have a minimum influence on the cost-effectiveness of CO2 reduction pathways for the transportation sector.



中文翻译:

不同电力碳强度和电动汽车采用率下纽约市的交通排放情景

与世界上许多城市一​​样,纽约市正在制定政策,到 2050 年减少所有能源部门的 CO 2排放。了解不同程度的电动汽车采用和 CO 2强度对城市减排的影响至关重要。在这里,我们使用技术丰富、自下而上的能源系统优化模型,通过情景框架分析纽约市提议的交通运输业CO 2减排政策对成本和空气排放的影响。我们的分析表明,早期轻型车辆的电气化对于进一步减少空气排放至关重要。当进一步与能源效率改进相结合时,这些行动有助于产生 CO 2在更多 CO 2密集型电力的情景下减少。对化石燃料的大量依赖和对结构变革的需求对运输部门的成本效益 CO 2减排提出了挑战。在这里,我们发现与电网脱碳相关的不确定性对运输部门CO 2减排途径的成本效益影响最小。

更新日期:2021-01-04
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