The association of climatic variables and climatic oscillations with wheat yield across 26 canal command areas (CCAs) in Punjab, Pakistan, is studied, for recent 34 years (1982–2015). Climatic variables include precipitation, temperature, dry/wet spell lengths, hot/cold spell lengths, wet/dry spell ratio along with climatic oscillations, and satellite-based vegetation index for the months of January to April (Rabi season). During Rabi season, temperature increase rate was 0.14 °C decade⁻¹, whereas precipitation trends were spatially inhomogeneous and varied between – 2.7 mm decade⁻¹ and + 5.4 mm decade⁻¹. The precipitation, temperature, cold spell length, smoothed NDVI (ND), and standard deviation of ND (SDND) displayed significant correlations (0.31–0.96) with wheat yield at varying time scales. The inter-annual wheat yield variability displayed a gain of 415.7 kg ha⁻¹ under present climatic conditions for all CCAs. Worse to extreme climatic conditions based on percentiles obtained from present climate displayed a reduction of wheat yield by 252.0 to 954.9 kg ha⁻¹, respectively. The good to best climate in comparison to present climatic conditions added up 108.1 to 251.9 kg ha⁻¹, respectively. The 11-year period of 1993–2003 was the most drought prone period with consecutive five years of drought (1998–2002), having decreased precipitation, small wet/dry spell ratio and increased temperature, and long dry/hot spell length during wheat growing season. The wheat yield is predicted based on multiple regression models with sizable skill (having an explained variance of 0.79 and a root mean squared error of 121.3 kg ha⁻¹).

最近34年（1982年至2015年），研究了巴基斯坦旁遮普省26个运河指挥区（CCA）的气候变量和气候波动与小麦产量的关系。气候变量包括1月至4月（拉比季节）的降水，温度，干/湿法术长度，热/冷法术长度，湿/干法术比率以及气候波动以及基于卫星的植被指数。在拉比季节，温度上升速率为0.14°C十年^-1，而降水趋势在空间上是不均匀的，并且在– 2.7 mm十年^-1和+ 5.4 mm十年^{-1之间变化。}。在不同的时间尺度下，降水量，温度，冷拼长度，平滑NDVI（ND）和ND标准偏差（SDND）与小麦产量之间显示出显着的相关性（0.31-0.96）。在当前气候条件下，所有CCA的年度小麦单产差异显示出415.7 kg ha ^-1的增产。基于从当前气候中获得的百分位数，更恶劣的极端气候条件显示小麦单产分别降低了252.0至954.9 kg ha ^-1。与目前的气候条件相比，良好至最佳的气候增加了108.1至251.9 kg ha ^-1， 分别。1993-2003年的11年是干旱最容易发生的时期，连续五年是干旱（1998-2002年），降雨减少，小麦干/湿拼比小，温度升高，干/热拼长。生长季。基于具有相当技能的多重回归模型来预测小麦的产量（解释方差为0.79，均方根误差为121.3 kg ha ^-1）。