The accuracy of a seismic risk model to predict future losses is a significant challenge as it depends on many parameters, each with important uncertainties, that are present in all components of the model. The aim of this study is to present a process that can be followed to validate the efficiency of a predictive risk model for seismic risk assessment at urban or regional scale, through comparison of estimated physical damages with those recorded at past seismic events, discussing at the same time the uncertainties involved in the different steps of this process. The proposed process is applied for the verification of the open-access uniform European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), considering two major past seismic events in Greece, i.e. the Athens 1999 M_w 5.9 and the Thessaloniki 1978 M_w 6.5 earthquakes, for which we possess relatively good damage reports for a representative portion of the two metropolitan agglomerations. Despite the numerous uncertainties and the unavoidable simplifications, a good comparison is found between the estimated and observed damage, especially for the city of Thessaloniki. Regarding the distribution of damage, it is anticipated that the most heavily damaged typologies for both case studies are found to be the low-to-medium-rise, non-ductile masonry buildings. The analyses also revealed the importance of the credibility of the adopted exposure model and of the adequate selection of ground motion models for seismic hazard assessment. Τhis challenging work and the positive results acquired so far aim to contribute to the efforts towards increasing the resilience of cities.

地震风险模型预测未来损失的准确性是一个重大挑战，因为它取决于模型所有组件中存在的许多参数，每个参数都有重要的不确定性。这项研究的目的是提出一个过程，通过将估计的物理破坏与过去地震事件中记录的破坏进行比较，在城市或区域尺度上验证地震风险评估的预测风险模型的有效性。同时，此过程的不同步骤涉及不确定性。考虑到希腊过去发生的两次主要地震事件，即雅典1999 M _w 5.9和塞萨洛尼基1978 M _w，提议的过程用于验证开放式统一欧洲地震风险模型（ESRM20）。6.5级地震，对于两个大城市群的代表性部分，我们拥有相对较好的破坏报告。尽管存在许多不确定性和不可避免的简化，但是在估计的损害和观察到的损害之间找到了很好的比较，特别是对于塞萨洛尼基市。关于损坏的分布，可以预期，两种案例研究中损坏最严重的类型是中低层的非延性砖石建筑。分析还表明，采用暴露模型的可信度和选择地震动模型进行地震危险性评估的重要性。他具有挑战性的工作和迄今为止取得的积极成果旨在为提高城市的复原力做出贡献。