Abstract

The results presented in the study characterize variations of river runoff in the Don Basin in the period of instrumental observations and under scenario conditions of global anthropogenic warming, which are likely in the early current century. Integral-difference curves are used to identify long-term phases of higher/lower annual and seasonal runoff of the Don and its major tributaries over the period 1870–2010. The length of the phases varies from 10 years to many decades (for Don runoff of the dry seasons). The identified contrast phases show statistically significant difference in the seasonal runoff and, in the majority of rivers, annual runoff as well; it varies from 10 to >100%. A model of monthly water balance and ensemble-averaged model scenarios of changes in air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation under anthropogenic climate warming, developed under IPCC CMIP3 and CMIP5, are used to assess the possible changes in Don runoff at Razdorskaya in the first three decades of the current century. Scenario changes in the mean long-term river runoff are far less than its differences typical of the long-term phases of its higher/lower values and its changes caused by anthropogenic impact on drainage basins and in river channels.

中文翻译：

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唐盆地河流径流的当代和情景变化

摘要

该研究结果表明，在仪器观测期间和在全球人为变暖的情景条件下（可能在本世纪初），唐盆地的河流径流具有变化特征。积分差曲线用于确定唐纳河及其主要支流在1870–2010年期间较高/较低的年度和季节径流量的长期阶段。阶段的长度从10年到数十年不等（干旱季节的唐径流）。确定的对比阶段显示出季节性径流量和大多数河流的年径流量在统计上的显着差异；从10％到> 100％不等。每月水量平衡模型和总体平均情景，包括气温，降水，在IPCC CMIP3和CMIP5下开发的人为气候变暖作用下的蒸发和蒸发被用来评估本世纪前三十年Razdorskaya地区Don径流的可能变化。长期平均径流量的情景变化远小于其长期较高/较低值的典型差异，以及人为对流域和河道的影响所引起的变化。