Climate change and the intensification of anthropogenic activities in watersheds have been substantially changing the streamflow regime, which is a problem for water resource managers. This study assesses the influence of the changes in land use and land cover and rainfall on the streamflow regime. This study also models the pattern of these streamflows according to the rainfall and land use and land cover in the Santo Antônio River watershed, located in the transitioning region of the Brazilian Biomes Atlantic Forest and Cerrado. To assess the dynamic relationship between land use and land cover and the streamflow regime, five classes of land use and land cover were used. To characterize the hydrological pattern, data from six streamflow gauges and 24 rainfall gauges that influence the study area were used. Multiple regression models were adjusted to estimate streamflow using the explanatory variables rainfall and land use and land cover. As result, a direct relationship was found, as the decrease in streamflow in some drainage areas was influenced by the decrease in rainfall over the base period. The relationship between land use and land cover and streamflow was not significant. The reductions in the streamflow regimes over the years in the watershed were influenced by reductions in annual rainfall, which reduced about 19% while the water withdrawals from 2003 to 2014 increased 2350%. The results found in this study are useful to the water managers since they can estimate streamflow in any part of the studied river through rainfall and land use and land cover data. This helps to reduce the risks associated with the water allocation process.

流域的气候变化和人类活动的加剧已经在很大程度上改变了水流状况，这对于水资源管理者来说是一个问题。这项研究评估了土地利用，土地覆盖和降雨的变化对水流状况的影响。这项研究还根据位于巴西生物群落大西洋森林和塞拉多过渡地区的圣安东尼奥河流域的降雨，土地利用和土地覆盖来模拟这些水流的模式。为了评估土地利用和土地覆盖与径流状况之间的动态关系，使用了五类土地利用和土地覆盖。为了表征水文模式，使用了影响研究区域的六个流量表和24个降雨表的数据。调整了多元回归模型，以使用解释变量降雨，土地利用和土地覆盖来估算河流流量。结果，发现存在直接关系，因为某些流域的水流量减少受到基期降雨减少的影响。土地利用与土地覆被与水流量之间的关系不显着。流域多年来流态的减少受到年降雨量减少的影响，年降雨量减少了约19％，而2003年至2014年的取水量增加了2350％。这项研究中发现的结果对水管理者很有用，因为他们可以通过降雨，土地利用和土地覆盖数据估算所研究河流任何部分的水流量。这有助于减少与水分配过程相关的风险。