The maintenance of geotechnical structures, such as earth-fill dams, is required as a countermeasure against severe natural disasters, particularly earthquakes and heavy rains. The reliability-based analysis introduced here is in response to the recent demand for low-cost improvements.

First, a statistical model of N values was determined from Swedish weight sounding (SWS) tests to present the spatial variability of the soil strength. Then, a reliability-based analysis of embankments was conducted by considering the variability of the internal friction angle derived from N value, and the seismic hazard for the Nankai Trough. The next step was to evaluate the probability of the overflow of earth-fills during heavy rains. The rainfall intensity was considered as a probabilistic parameter, and the various rainfall patterns were tested by the proposed method. Finally, the total risk due to both earthquakes and heavy rains was evaluated for an earth-fill site. As a result, the possibility for the practical use of the proposed method in making plans for the maintenance of deteriorated earth-fill dams was verified.

作为对付严重自然灾害（尤其是地震和大雨）的对策，需要维护土工结构（如土石坝）。此处介绍的基于可靠性的分析是对近期对低成本改进的需求的回应。

首先，根据瑞典的重量法（SWS）测试确定了N值的统计模型，以显示土壤强度的空间变异性。然后，通过考虑由N得出的内部摩擦角的变化性，对路堤进行了基于可靠性的分析。值，以及南开海槽的地震危险性。下一步是评估大雨期间土石方溢出的可能性。降雨强度被认为是一个概率参数，并通过所提出的方法测试了各种降雨模式。最后，对填土场评估了由于地震和大雨造成的总风险。结果，证实了所提出的方法在制定维护恶化的土石坝的计划中的实际应用的可能性。