Introduction

To understand the heterogeneous longitudinal trends in adolescent nicotine product use risk, we investigated the trajectories and determinants of nicotine product use among adolescents.

Methods

Using Waves 1–4 (Years 2013–2018) data of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, we conducted group-based trajectory modeling to identify groups of individuals who followed homogeneous trajectories of nicotine product use risk over time and weighted multinomial logistic regression to examine relative risk ratios (RRRs) of different levels of predictors of group membership in each identified trajectory.

Results

For adolescents, who were 12–17 years old at baseline (N = 10,086), 5 trajectory groups emerged: (1) nonusers (73.7%); (2) stable low to moderate risk of developing poly use (5.0%); (3) gradual increase in risk of poly use (12.8%); (4) rapid linear increase in risk of poly use until Wave 3 and then plateauing for cigarettes or slightly diminishing for e-cigarettes and other tobacco products at Wave 4 (4.6%); and (5) stable moderate to high risk of poly use (3.9%). Adolescents who used social network services daily at Wave 1 were more likely to belong to each of the four trajectory groups compared to nonusers (RRRs ranging from 1.43 to 2.04).

Conclusions

The current study findings imply that the majority of adolescents who initiated any nicotine product use have an elevated risk of transitioning to poly users. Risk and protective factors for different risk patterns are discussed.

中文翻译：

---

在全国代表性的纵向队列样本中，美国青少年中青少年尼古丁产品使用风险的轨迹和决定因素

介绍

为了了解青少年尼古丁产品使用风险的异质性纵向趋势，我们调查了青少年尼古丁产品使用的轨迹和决定因素。

方法

我们使用“烟草与健康人群评估”的第1–4浪（2013-2018年）数据，进行了基于群体的轨迹建模，以识别随时间推移遵循尼古丁产品使用风险的均质轨迹并加权多项式Lo​​gistic回归的个人群体。检查每个识别的轨迹中不同级别的组成员身份预测因子的相对风险比（RRR）。

结果

对于基线时为12-17岁的青少年（N = 10086），出现了5个轨迹组：（1）非使用者（73.7％）；（2）稳定的低至中等发展多用途的风险（5.0％）；（3）逐渐增加使用聚乙烯的风险（12.8％）；（4）在第3浪之前，使用poly的风险迅速线性增加，然后在第4浪时卷烟达到平稳状态，或者电子烟和其他烟草产品略有下降（4.6％）；（5）稳定的中度到高风险的多用途（3.9％）。与非用户相比，每天在第1浪中每天使用社交网络服务的青少年更有可能属于四个轨迹组（RRR范围为1.43至2.04）。

结论

当前的研究结果表明，开始使用任何尼古丁产品的大多数青少年都具有过渡为使用多药的风险。讨论了不同风险模式的风险和保护因素。