To address increasing water demands in expanding cities, many aquifers in Mexico are overexploited and deplete. The resulting land subsidence often combines with ground faulting/fracturing and damage to infrastructure. This study provides the longest Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) survey ever undertaken for the Aguascalientes Valley, aimed to constrain its structurally-controlled subsidence process and the induced risk. 275 ERS-1/2 1996–2002, ENVISAT 2003–2010 and Sentinel-1 2014–2020 C-band SAR images are processed with change detection, differential Interferometric SAR (InSAR) and Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) methods. Aguascalientes notably expanded over the last four decades, as revealed by Seasat 1978 L-band SAR, Landsat 1985–2010 and Sentinel-2 2020 optical imagery. The observed subsidence pattern involves alluvial/fluvial deposits within the N-S trending graben. Maximum settlement rates are −14 cm/year in 1996, −10 cm/year in 2000–2010 and over −12 cm/year in 2015–2020. An acceleration (−0.70 cm/year²) is recorded in 2015–2020 close to recently developed industrial plants and housing districts. Satellite estimates agree with in-situ observations, static GPS surveying and continuous GPS monitoring data. Rough correlation is found with piezometric level drop rates, whereas aquifer thickness plays a stronger role in the subsidence process. While these outcomes align with the existing literature, this InSAR survey: (i) unveils previously unknown E-W deformation affecting two N-S oriented bands within the valley, with up to ~ ±3 cm/year in 2015–2020 towards its center; (ii) identifies zones of sagging and hogging with horizontal strain (ε) of up to 0.05–0.1%; (iii) retrieves differential rates reaching 6–8 cm/year and angular distortions (β) of 1/500 along the Oriente fault; and (iv) investigates the statistical distribution of β across field surveyed faults and fissures, and marks areas with potentially yet-unmapped ground discontinuities. A new surface faulting risk matrix embedding β and ε is therefore proposed to estimate subsidence impact on properties and population. Given its scale-dependency, the risk assessment provides a lower bound to the percentage of urban areas at risk within the Aguascalientes state: at least 2% of the urban areas were at high and very high risk in 2003–2010 (involving ~12,000 properties and ~39,000 inhabitants), but this increased to 6% in 2015–2020 (~25,600 properties, ~85,200 inhabitants). The evidence of a subsidence process evolving spatially and temporally highlights the need for continuous updating of hazard information.

为了解决不断扩大的城市不断增长的水需求，墨西哥的许多含水层被过度开发和消耗。由此产生的地面沉降常常与地面断裂/压裂以及对基础设施的破坏相结合。这项研究提供了有史以来对阿瓜斯卡连特斯河谷进行的最长的合成孔径雷达（SAR）调查，目的是限制其结构受控的沉陷过程和诱发风险。275 ERS-1 / 2 1996–2002，ENVISAT 2003–2010和Sentinel-1 2014–2020 C波段SAR图像使用变化检测，差分干涉SAR（InSAR）和小基线子集（SBAS）方法进行处理。Seasat 1978 L波段SAR，Landsat 1985-2010和Sentinel-2 2020光学影像显示，过去二十年来，阿瓜斯卡达特斯的发展显着。观察到的沉降模式涉及NS趋势带内的冲积/河流沉积。最大沉降速率在1996年为-14 cm /年，在2000–2010年为-10 cm /年，在2015–2020年为-12 cm /年。加速度（−0.70厘米/年²）记录在2015–2020年，靠近最近开发的工业厂房和居住区。卫星估算与原位观测，静态GPS测量和连续GPS监测数据一致。发现与测压水位下降速率之间存在大致的相关性，而含水层厚度在沉降过程中起着更重要的作用。尽管这些结果与现有文献相吻合，但该InSAR调查显示：（i）揭示了以前未知的EW变形，影响了山谷内两个NS定向带，2015-2020年向中心移动的速度高达〜±3 cm /年；（ii）确定水平应变（ε）高达0.05-0.1％的下垂和起伏区域；（iii）检索达到6–8 cm /年的差异速率和角度失真（β）沿着Oriente断层的1/500; （iv）研究整个实测断层和裂隙中β的统计分布，并标出具有潜在尚未映射的地面不连续性的区域。嵌入β和ε的新地表断层风险矩阵。因此，建议估算沉降对财产和人口的影响。鉴于其规模依赖性，风险评估为阿瓜斯卡连特斯州内处于风险中的城市区域的百分比提供了下限：2003-2010年，至少有2％的城市区域处于高风险和极高风险（涉及约12,000个房地产和约39,000名居民），但这一数字在2015-2020年增至6％（约25,600处房地产，约85,200居民）。沉降过程在空间和时间上演变的证据突显了持续更新危害信息的必要性。