ABSTRACT

The Aral Sea crisis is considered one of the most severe ecological tragedies from the 1960s in Central Asia. The reasons for this crisis, especially in the twenty-first century, are still scientific disputes. This study investigated the relationship between land cover change in the Aral Sea related basins and the Aral Sea crisis from 2000 to 2020 by employing the GlobeLand30 dataset with 30 m resolution. Results showed that the cultivated land in the Aral Sea basin increased by 2,291 km², and 75.4% of it occurred in the region of Karakum Canal, the largest water conservancy project for irrigation in the world. The water surface area of reservoirs increased by 1,183.5 km² during the same period. Coincident with this change, the Aral Sea further shrank from 26,280.8 km² in 2000 to 9,285.2 km² in 2020, mainly occurred in the first decade of the twenty-first century. These imply that the Aral Sea crisis is persistent in the twenty-first century and is likely driven by water competition among different regions within the basin for agricultural irrigation. Strengthening the coordination and cooperation of cross-boundary water resource management is still the most important management strategy choice to address the crisis from a broader perspective.

摘要

咸海危机被认为是自1960年代以来中亚最严重的生态悲剧之一。造成这场危机的原因，尤其是在二十一世纪，仍然是科学之争。本研究采用分辨率为30 m的GlobeLand30数据集，研究了2000年至2020年咸海相关盆地的土地覆盖变化与咸海危机之间的关系。结果表明，咸海流域的耕地增加了2,291 km ²，其中75.4％发生在卡拉库姆运河地区，这是世界上最大的灌溉水利工程。同期，水库水面面积增加了1,183.5 km ²。与此变化相吻合的是，咸海从26,280.8 km ²进一步缩水从2000年的9285.2 km ²到2020年，主要发生在21世纪的前十年。这表明咸海危机在二十一世纪持续存在，很可能是由流域内不同区域之间用于农业灌溉的水竞争所驱动的。从更广泛的角度来看，加强跨界水资源管理的协调与合作仍然是应对危机的最重要的管理战略选择。