Recent studies on nuclear accident consequence assessments that can cover consequences to both people and the environment, cannot capture the change of consequences over time, and vice versa. This study aims to design a framework of nuclear accident consequence assessment that can cover major consequences to people and the environment, and capture the long-term evolution of those consequences. Major long-term accident consequences are quantified using the cost per severe accident. Annual changes of key parameters are monitored to capture the change of each consequence over time. A case study with a hypothetical long-term loss of all AC power in a virtual BWR near Bangkok is conducted. Monitoring of the change of consequences over time leads to a different picture of overall accident consequences. Though decontamination takes up a large share of the cost per severe accident, its effects significantly decrease in several years. Radiation effects then dominate the overall accident consequences from the second decade onward. Parameter survey reveals the effectiveness of limiting and delaying decontamination in reducing the overall accident consequences in initial stage (first two years) and later stage (up to a decade), respectively. This time-dependent nuclear accident consequence assessment framework will be useful for long-term nuclear accident aftermath management planning.

最近关于核事故后果评估的研究可能涵盖对人类和环境的后果，无法捕获后果随时间的变化，反之亦然。本研究旨在设计一个核事故后果评估框架，该框架可以涵盖对人类和环境的重大后果，并捕获这些后果的长期演变。使用每次严重事故的成本来量化重大长期事故的后果。监测关键参数的年度变化，以捕获随时间变化的每种结果。进行了一个案例研究，假设在曼谷附近的虚拟BWR中所有交流电源都将长期丢失。随时间推移对后果变化的监控会导致整体事故后果的不同印象。尽管净化工作在每次严重事故的成本中占据了很大一部分，但其影响却在几年内显着下降。从第二个十年开始，辐射效应将主导整个事故后果。参数调查表明，分别在开始阶段（前两年）和后期阶段（长达十年），限制和延迟净化工作可有效减少总体事故后果。这个与时间相关的核事故后果评估框架将对长期的核事故后果管理计划很有用。参数调查表明，分别在开始阶段（前两年）和后期阶段（长达十年），限制和延迟净化工作可有效减少总体事故后果。这个与时间相关的核事故后果评估框架将对长期的核事故后果管理计划很有用。参数调查表明，分别在开始阶段（前两年）和后期阶段（长达十年），限制和延迟净化工作可有效减少总体事故后果。这个与时间相关的核事故后果评估框架将对长期的核事故后果管理计划很有用。