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Patterns in oyster natural mortality in Chesapeake Bay, Maryland using a Bayesian model
Fisheries Research ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105838
Kathryn L. Doering , Michael J. Wilberg , Dong Liang , Mitchell Tarnowski

Bivalves leave behind articulated valves when they die that can be used to estimate natural mortality. However, a common method used to estimate natural mortality in bivalves, known as the box count method, includes several assumptions that may be violated for eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica in Chesapeake Bay, Maryland. We developed a Bayesian model alternative to the box count method that included modifications to account for potential violations of assumptions. The model was applied to oysters in 32 areas in Maryland during 1991–2017 using dredge survey data, and the natural mortality estimates from the model were compared to ones derived from the box count method. The spatial and temporal trends in natural mortality from the model were summarized using dynamic factor analysis. Natural mortality showed considerable spatial and temporal variation, with median mortality rates ranging between 0.00 and 0.96 yr−1. Natural mortality spiked in most regions in 2002 and was lower in more recent years. The Bayesian model estimated slightly higher (0.02 yr−1 on average) natural mortality than the box count method, except for years following high natural mortality, after which the Bayesian model estimated lower natural mortality than the box count method. The dynamic factor analysis revealed two common trends in natural mortality and a north-south gradient in the loadings on the trends. This work improves our understanding of the variability of oyster natural mortality in Maryland and the Bayesian model could be modified for use with oysters in other regions or with other species.



中文翻译:

贝叶斯模型在马里兰州切萨皮克湾的牡蛎自然死亡率模式

双壳类动物死亡时会留下铰接阀门,这些阀门可用于估计自然死亡率。但是,用于估算双壳类动物自然死亡率的常用方法(称为盒数法)包括东部牡蛎Crassostrea virginica可能违反的几个假设。在马里兰州切萨皮克湾。我们开发了一种贝叶斯(Bayesian)模型来代替盒数方法,该方法包括修改以解决潜在的假设违规问题。使用挖泥机调查数据,将该模型应用于1991年至2017年马里兰州32个地区的牡蛎,并将该模型的自然死亡率估计值与盒计数法得出的值进行了比较。使用动态因素分析总结了模型中自然死亡率的时空趋势。自然死亡率显示出相当大的时空变化,中位死亡率在0.00至0.96 yr -1之间。2002年,大多数地区的自然死亡率上升,而近年来则更低。贝叶斯模型估计略高(0.02 yr -1平均而言,自然死亡率要比盒计数法高,但高自然死亡率的年份除外,此后贝叶斯模型估计的自然死亡率要比盒计数法低。动态因子分析揭示了自然死亡率的两个常见趋势以及趋势负荷的南北梯度。这项工作增进了我们对马里兰州牡蛎自然死亡率变异性的了解,可以修改贝叶斯模型以用于其他地区或其他物种的牡蛎。

更新日期:2020-12-26
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