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Future natural gas consumption in the context of decarbonization - A meta-analysis of scenarios modeling the German energy system
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100591
Hendrik Scharf , Fabian Arnold , Dominic Lencz

Germany strives to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. In the underlying roadmap (Climate Action Plan 2050), natural gas is declared to be a bridge energy carrier into a carbon neutral era. But, since the roadmap only describes guiding principles and abstract transition paths, the concrete role of natural gas remains unclear. By analyzing 36 scenarios of eleven recent studies with respect to their GHG emissions, natural gas consumption, as well as their transition paths, we aim at understanding how decarbonization intensity and decarbonization strategies influence German future natural gas consumption. We find that as long as GHG reductions are less than 70% in comparison to 1990 levels natural gas consumption remains almost constant on average. However, German natural gas consumption in the scenarios varies by up to 500 TWh/a for identical GHG emission reductions. This divergence is driven by the decarbonization strategies applied. While some scenarios focus on switches from oil and coal to natural gas to mitigate GHG emissions, others favor a combination of energy efficiency and electrification of appliances currently running with natural gas. When GHG emission reductions are intensified, natural gas consumption declines considerably in almost all considered scenarios and the variances of projected natural gas consumptions narrow. In order to achieve those GHG emission levels, switches to natural gas are no longer sufficient. Hence, natural gas needs to be replaced. This is especially true when GHG emissions should be reduced by more than 80% compared to 1990 levels. Applied decarbonization strategies vary from extensive electrification of the end-use sectors, to a production of huge amounts of renewables (fuels and electricity), to an extensive utilization of synthetic fuels. All of these decarbonization methods reduce natural gas consumption. Only the scenario allowing for carbon capture and storage or usage in a large scale paves the way for constant natural gas consumption levels while still achieving high GHG abatement goals.



中文翻译:

脱碳背景下的未来天然气消费-对德国能源系统建模的情景的荟萃分析

与1990年相比,德国力争到2050年将其温室气体(GHG)排放量至少减少80%。在基本路线图(《 2050年气候行动计划》)中,天然气被宣布为碳中和时代的桥梁能源载体。但是,由于路线图仅描述了指导原则和抽象的过渡路径,因此天然气的具体作用仍不清楚。通过分析11项近期研究的36种情景的温室气体排放,天然气消耗及其过渡路径,我们旨在了解脱碳强度和脱碳策略如何影响德国未来的天然气消耗。我们发现,与1990年相比,只要减少的温室气体排放量不到70%,天然气的平均消费量就几乎保持恒定。然而,在相同的温室气体减排量下,情景中的德国天然气消耗量最多相差500 TWh / a。这种差异是由所采用的脱碳策略驱动的。尽管有些方案着眼于从石油,煤炭到天然气的转换以减少温室气体排放,但其他方案则倾向于将能源效率和当前使用天然气的家用电器电气化相结合。加大温室气体减排量后,几乎所有考虑的情况下天然气消耗量都会大幅下降,预计天然气消耗量的方差会缩小。为了达到这些温室气体排放水平,转换为天然气已不再足够。因此,需要更换天然气。当与1990年的水平相比减少80%以上的温室气体排放时,尤其如此。应用的脱碳策略从最终用途部门的广泛电气化,到大量可再生能源(燃料和电力)的生产,到合成燃料的广泛利用,不等。所有这些脱碳方法均可减少天然气消耗。只有允许大规模进行碳捕集,封存或使用的方案才能为保持恒定的天然气消耗量铺平道路,同时仍要实现较高的温室气体减排目标。

更新日期:2020-12-25
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