This paper investigates (for the first time) the impact of the economic policy uncertainties of Singapore and its major trading partners on Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The study uses monthly data from January 2003 to August 2019, correlation analysis, spillover index analysis and a structural vector autoregression model to perform the investigation. Using the newly invented Singaporean economic policy uncertainty index, the research finds that it is a good predictor of industrial production. It is found that, in general, uncertainty depresses Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The paper suggests that policymakers promote new entrepreneurship and build a skilled labor force to minimize the impact of uncertainty on the economy of Singapore.

中文翻译：

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经济政策的不确定性和新加坡的实体经济

本文（首次）调查了新加坡及其主要贸易伙伴的经济政策不确定性对新加坡工业生产和出口的影响。该研究使用 2003 年 1 月至 2019 年 8 月的月度数据、相关性分析、溢出指数分析和结构向量自回归模型进行调查。使用新发明的新加坡经济政策不确定性指数，研究发现它是工业生产的良好预测指标。研究发现，总体而言，不确定性抑制了新加坡的工业生产和出口。该文件建议政策制定者促进新的企业家精神并建立熟练的劳动力，以尽量减少不确定性对新加坡经济的影响。