We evaluate alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market funda-mentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. World industrial production is one of the most useful indicators. However, by combining measures from several different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and measures for assessing future energy demand and oil price pressures. We illustrate their usefulness for quantifying the main factors behind the severe contraction of the global economy and the price risks faced by shale oil producers in early 2020.

中文翻译：

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能源市场和全球经济状况

我们评估了全球经济活动和其他市场基本面的替代指标对预测实际石油价格和全球石油消费的有用性。世界工业生产是最有用的指标之一。但是，通过结合来自多个不同来源的措施，我们可以做得更好。我们的分析产生了一个新的全球经济状况指数以及评估未来能源需求和石油价格压力的措施。我们说明了它们在量化全球经济严重收缩背后的主要因素以及页岩油生产商在 2020 年初面临的价格风险方面的有用性。