This paper considers how Thirlwall's balance-of-payments-constrained growth model has fared over the preceding 40 years. Issues dealt with include how the model fits into Harrod's closed-economy dynamic model; whether the model is a tautology; the role of the exchange rate and terms of trade in influencing the long-run growth rate, and whether capital inflows make any difference to the long-run predictions of the model. The conclusion is that it is mainly the structure of production and trade that determines the long-run growth rate of countries, within a balance-of-payments equilibrium framework, as determinants of the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports.

中文翻译：

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40年后国际收支制约增长的思考

本文考虑了 Thirlwall 的国际收支约束增长模型在过去 40 年中的表现。处理的问题包括该模型如何适应哈罗德的封闭经济动态模型；模型是否为同义反复；汇率和贸易条件在影响长期增长率方面的作用，以及资本流入是否对模型的长期预测有任何影响。结论是，在国际收支均衡框架内，决定国家长期增长率的主要是生产和贸易结构，作为进出口需求收入弹性的决定因素。