We use a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance terms (MRT) to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on a country's export. Empirical analysis based on data from 20 countries that traded with one another (creating 380 pairs of importing-exporting countries) over the period 2002-2016 shows that the export of a country is negatively associated with the EPU of its corresponding importing country, but not with the EPU of the exporting country itself. This effect remains qualitatively unchanged regardless whether the exporting country is a developed or a developing economy and whether it focuses on commodities or non-commodities, but the effect is smaller for commodity exporters. Furthermore, the observed negative effect is more pronounced when the unemployment rate in the importing country is high, whilst GDP growth in the importing country does not influence the focal relationship. These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the differential effects of policy uncertainty in importing and exporting countries and of taking into consideration country and product heterogeneity when analysing the effects of EPU on exports.

中文翻译：

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经济政策不确定性对出口的影响：引力模型方法

我们使用考虑了多边抵抗力条款（MRT）的引力模型来检验经济政策不确定性（EPU）对一国出口的影响。根据2002年至2016年间相互进行贸易的20个国家（创建380个进出口国家）的数据进行的经验分析表明，一个国家的出口与其相应进口国的EPU呈负相关，但不与出口国本身的EPU。无论出口国是发达经济体还是发展中经济体，以及其侧重于商品还是非商品，这种影响在质量上都保持不变，但对商品出口商而言，影响较小。此外，当进口国的失业率高时，观察到的负面影响更加明显，而进口国的国内生产总值增长不影响焦点关系。这些发现通过突出强调考虑进出口国家政策不确定性的不同影响以及在分析EPU对出口的影响时考虑到国家和产品异质性的重要性来推动文献研究。