This paper evaluates the potential fiscal effects on cities of the coronavirus-induced recession We provide estimates of revenue shortfalls in fiscal year 2021, as compared to the trajectory prior to the recession Our analysis is based on data for 150 fiscally standardized cities, fiscal units designed to take account of variations across central cities in governmental structure We forecast revenues from all of the major revenue sources of cities, including property, sales and income taxes, fees and charges, and intergovernmental aid We investigate two scenarios, "less severe" and "more severe," depending on assumptions about fiscal pressures at the state level and the elasticities of the various revenue sources Our average predictions are for a shortfall in revenues of 5 5 percent under the less severe scenario and 9 percent under the more severe scenario We predict wide variation across cities, depending on differences in revenue structures and the fiscal condition of states going into the recession The hardest hit cities face revenue losses of 15 percent or more We also compare revenue pressure to cost pressures from the coronavirus and find that a number of cities will experience large revenue shortfalls and high additional costs

中文翻译：

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COVID-19大流行对城市的财政影响：初步评估

本文评估了冠状病毒诱发的衰退对城市的潜在财政影响我们提供了与衰退之前的轨迹相比在2021财年收入短缺的估计值我们的分析基于150个财政标准化城市的数据，这些财政单位是考虑到中心城市在政府结构中的差异，我们预测了城市所有主要收入来源的收入，包括财产，销售和所得税，收费和政府间援助。我们研究了“不那么严重”和“不严重”两种情况更严重，”取决于有关州级财政压力和各种收入来源的弹性的假设。我们的平均预测是，在较不严重的情况下，收入将减少5％到5％；在较严重的情况下，收入将减少9％。取决于收入结构的差异和进入衰退的州的财政状况。受灾最严重的城市面临的收入损失为15％或更多。我们还将收入压力与冠状病毒的成本压力进行了比较，发现许多城市将经历大型收入不足和高额额外费用根据收入结构的差异和陷入衰退的州的财政状况，受灾最严重的城市面临的收入损失为15％或更多。我们还将收入压力与冠状病毒带来的成本压力进行了比较，发现许多城市将经历大量收入短缺和高额额外费用根据收入结构的差异和陷入衰退的州的财政状况，受灾最严重的城市面临的收入损失为15％或更多。我们还将收入压力与冠状病毒带来的成本压力进行了比较，发现许多城市将经历大量收入短缺和高额额外费用