This ingenious paper by Koslowski, Veldkamp, and Venkateswaran develops a model with two main components. The first is rooted in the financial economics of asset pricing. It describes amechanism linking bad financial experiences to lengthy periods of low riskless interest rates. The second is rooted in corporate finance. It considers features of financial institutions and markets that explain why safe assets enjoy a larger increase in value in bad times than is captured in standard asset pricing models. I will start by exploring the simple two-period, two-state Lucas (1978) model of asset pricing to develop a sense of the challenges in understanding the pricing of risky and riskless assets. Investor households receive 1 unit of endowment to consume now and a random endowment with two possible values to consume in the future, c1 and c2 in states 1 and 2. State 1 is normal and state 2 is a disasterwith considerably lower consumption. The probabilities of the two consumption levels are 1 p and p, respectively. These two values of possible consumption are constrained so that expected consumption growth is at a designated rate g:

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这篇由 Koslowski、Veldkamp 和 Venkateswaran 撰写的巧妙论文开发了一个包含两个主要组件的模型。第一个根源在于资产定价的金融经济学。它描述了将不良财务经历与长期低无风险利率联系起来的机制。二是植根于企业融资。它考虑了金融机构和市场的特征，这些特征解释了为什么安全资产在经济不景气的时候比标准资产定价模型中获得的价值增长更大。我将首先探索简单的两期、两态 Lucas (1978) 资产定价模型，以了解在理解风险和无风险资产定价方面的挑战。投资者家庭获得 1 单位的禀赋以供现在消费，以及具有两个可能的未来消费值的随机禀赋，状态 1 和状态 2 中的 c1 和 c2。状态 1 是正常的，状态 2 是消耗相当低的灾难。两个消费水平的概率分别为 1 p 和 p。可能消费的这两个值受到约束，以便预期消费增长处于指定的速率 g：