We build a model of the US economy with multiple aggregate shocks that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom-bust around the Great Recession, with three main results. First, the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs, not a change in credit conditions. Second, the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in nondurable expenditures through a wealth effect. Third, a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery.

中文翻译：

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房地产繁荣与萧条：模型与证据相结合

我们构建了一个美国经济模型，该模型具有多个引起均衡房价波动的总冲击。通过反事实实验，我们研究了大衰退前后的房地产繁荣与萧条，得出了三个主要结果。首先，房价和租金变动的主要驱动力是信念的转变，而不是信贷状况的变化。其次，房价的繁荣与萧条通过财富效应解释了非耐用品支出相应波动的一半。第三，大规模的债务减免计划对缓和房价和支出的崩溃几乎无济于事，但会大幅减少止赎，并在复苏期间引发小幅但持续的消费增长。