Using administrative data matching individual worker earnings to employers in a regression discontinuity design based on close union representation elections, this study presents new evidence on the impacts of unionization on establishment and worker outcomes. The paper first shows evidence that close union elections are subject to nonrandom selection, with large discontinuities in pre-election characteristics at the majority threshold. Estimates accounting for this selection show, perhaps surprisingly, that unionization significantly and substantially decreases establishment-level payroll, employment, average worker earnings at the establishment, and the probability of establishment survival. Estimates show the decreases in payroll and earnings are driven by union impacts on the composition of workers at unionization establishments, with older and higher-paid workers more likely to leave and younger workers more likely to join or stay. Worker-level effects on the earnings of workers who stay are small. The distinction between the large negative establishment-level effects and small worker-level effects is interpreted in a model of employer and employee selection into union jobs. JEL Codes: J01, J51 ∗This research uses data from the Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics Program, which was partially supported by the following National Science Foundation Grants: SES-9978093, SES-0339191 and ITR0427889; National Institute on Aging Grant AG018854; and grants from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. The author is indebted to JP Ferguson, Jim Davis, Javi Miranda, and Kristin McCue for help with the data. The author also gratefully acknowledges support from NSF Grant SES-0922355. Word count (text and appendix): 7,973. †181 Faculty Office Building, Provo, UT 84602, Fax: (801) 422-0194, Tel: (801) 422-4049, E-mail: frandsen@byu.edu.

中文翻译：

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工会的惊人影响：来自匹配的雇主-雇员数据的证据

本研究使用基于紧密工会代表选举的回归不连续性设计中将单个工人收入与雇主匹配的行政数据，该研究提供了关于工会对机构和工人成果的影响的新证据。该论文首先显示了证据，即紧密的工会选举受制于非随机选择，在多数人门槛之前，选举前特征存在较大的不连续性。对该选择进行会计处理的估计值可能令人惊讶地表明，工会组织显着且显着降低了企业级别的薪资，就业，企业的平均工人收入以及企业生存的可能性。估算显示，工资和收入的下降是由工会对工会组织中工人组成的影响所驱动的，高薪和高薪工人更有可能离开，而年轻工人则更有可能加入或留下。工人水平对在职工人收入的影响很小。在雇主和雇员选择工会工作的模型中，可以解释大型负面企业级效应和小型工人级效应之间的区别。JEL代码：J01，J51 *这项研究使用了人口普查局纵向雇主家庭动态计划中的数据，该数据部分获得了以下国家科学基金会的资助：SES-9978093，SES-0339191和ITR0427889；国立老龄化研究所AG018854；以及Alfred P. Sloan基金会的资助。本文所表达的任何观点和结论均为作者的观点，不一定代表美国人口普查局的观点。所有结果均经过审查，以确保不泄露任何机密信息。作者感谢JP Ferguson，Jim Davis，Javi Miranda和Kristin McCue提供数据帮助。作者还衷心感谢NSF Grant SES-0922355的支持。字数（文字和附录）：7,973。†181学院办公楼，普罗沃，UT 84602，传真：（801）422-0194，电话：（801）422-4049，电子邮件：frandsen@byu.edu。